Patrick Rocca NOTL Real Estate

Evening vibe on the Wilderness.. 🙏

well,i had an older client say to me this am "your a shark...my shark!!"i think thats a compliment🤷🤔😂😂💪

MARKET INSIGHT FOR THE WEEK ENDING August 28th, 2026

Housing Market Comeback Faces New Uncertainty as Trade War Escalates

For Canadian Realtors hoping the housing market was finally turning a corner, the July stats had brought some encouraging news.

After a long stretch of uncertainty, buyers and sellers were beginning to adjust to the new market. Activity was picking up, confidence was slowly returning and there were signs that the housing market was finding a more stable footing. But could the trade war be yet another hurdle for the market to overcome?

The latest round of tariffs has introduced another dose of economic uncertainty just as the housing market was showing some encouraging signs. That doesn't necessarily mean the recovery is over, but it does give buyers, sellers and Realtors another factor to consider heading into the fall.

The connection between the economy and real estate is pretty simple. People are more comfortable making a major purchase when they feel confident about their jobs, their income and the direction of the economy.

A prolonged trade dispute can push up the cost of goods and put additional pressure on businesses. Companies facing higher costs may delay hiring while consumers may become more cautious with their spending. Even if the housing market itself isn't directly affected by tariffs, the economic uncertainty surrounding them can still influence people's decisions about buying or selling a home.

That could be particularly important in markets that have already been struggling with affordability and higher borrowing costs.

The housing market today is not the same market we were dealing with during the worst of the downturn. Buyers have had more time to adjust to higher borrowing costs, while sellers have had to become more realistic about pricing and there is evidence that demand is beginning to come back.

The July sales numbers were encouraging but the trade war adds another layer of uncertainty at a time when many Canadians are already carefully watching their finances. For Realtors, that means the fall market could be a little harder to read.

There may still be buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines and are ready to make a move. There are also homeowners who need to sell regardless of what the economy is doing. But there could be another group that decides to wait and see what happens with the economy before making a major financial commitment.

It is also worth remembering that real estate markets are local. A trade war won't affect every province, city or neighbourhood in exactly the same way. Some areas may feel the economic impact more quickly than others, while markets with strong employment and limited housing supply could prove more resilient.

For now, the big question is whether the improving housing activity seen through July can continue despite the new economic uncertainty. And after everything the Canadian housing market has been through, nobody should be surprised if the road to recovery turns out to have a few more bumps along the way.

A steady, gradual improvement would be just fine. And perhaps that's exactly what we're beginning to see.

MARKET INSIGHT FOR THE WEEK ENDING August 21st, 2026

Homeowners Are Handling Higher Mortgage Payments, Despite the Pressure

As the final group of homeowners who locked in ultra-low mortgage rates during the pandemic begins to renew, a new survey suggests most are finding ways to manage the higher monthly payments.

A Royal LePage report says mortgage delinquency rates in Canada remain remarkably low compared with other developed countries, although some households are feeling the squeeze from larger mortgage payments.

About 38 per cent of Canadians with a mortgage on their primary residence expect their payments to rise when they renew. Of those, 26 per cent expect a slight increase, while 12 per cent anticipate a significant jump, according to a survey conducted by WPP PLC-owned public relations company Burson and released Wednesday.

Concerns are even greater in Canada’s most expensive housing markets, with 39 per cent of Toronto homeowners and 45 per cent of those in Vancouver expecting higher payments.

Still, most homeowners approaching renewal said they are not planning to make major changes to their living arrangements. Seventy-one per cent said they would not relocate, rent out their home or downsize to deal with higher payments. More than half said they would cut back on discretionary spending, while close to half plan to spend less on travel. Another 38 per cent said they expect to delay or cancel home renovations.

While higher renewal rates are clearly a concern for many homeowners, the survey suggests households have so far been able to adjust to the increased monthly costs.

Eight per cent of respondents said they had extended their amortization period, while six per cent reported missing or deferring a mortgage payment at least once during their current term. Among those who missed a payment, 19 per cent said their mortgage had been in arrears for 90 days or more.

There had been concerns in previous years that a large wave of mortgage defaults could follow as borrowers moved from ultra-low rates to higher ones. But the mortgage stress test appears to have provided some protection, requiring borrowers to demonstrate they could handle payments above what they were taking on at the time.

The national 90+ day delinquency rate edged up slightly to 0.24 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 0.21 per cent a year earlier. However, it remained below pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Another factor helping homeowners is income growth. Wages have slightly outpaced inflation since 2021, meaning many homeowners are likely earning more today than when they originally took out their mortgage. At the same time, home prices are at the same level or lower, while interest rates are no longer particularly high. Current five-year fixed-rate mortgage rates are around four per cent.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight lending rate at 2.25 per cent since October 2025. That remains well above the ultra-low 0.25 per cent rate seen during the pandemic but is below the five per cent level reached in 2023.

The survey was conducted by Burson using the Leger Opinion online panel. The poll included 1,127 Canadians and was conducted between July 20 and Aug. 6.

The Canadian Research Insights Council, an industry organization that promotes polling standards, notes that online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

My nightly dip...so refreshing...🙏🙏

MARKET INSIGHT FOR THE WEEK ENDING August 14th, 2026

New Home Sales Jump in Ontario Following the HST Cut.

The removal of the HST on new homes appears to be giving Ontario’s housing market a much-needed lift, with sales more than doubling this year since the tax break was introduced.

Buyers purchasing a new home can avoid HST if their agreement is signed before March 31, 2027. According to the Ontario Home Builders’ Association, the program is already having a noticeable impact on sales.

New figures from the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA) and the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) show that 8,410 new homes were sold in Ontario during the first three months of the HST reduction program. Of those, 4,765 sales were considered incremental and attributed to the HST rebate. That represents a 130 per cent increase from the same period last year, when 3,645 new homes were sold.

Scott Andison, chief executive officer of the OHBA, said the figures show the HST reduction is helping bring some activity back to a market that had been struggling.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced the program on March 30, just one day before it took effect. It applies to agreements signed between April 1, 2026, and March 31, 2027, and is open to all buyers, rather than being limited to first-time buyers.

The maximum rebate is $130,000 on homes priced up to $1.5 million. The benefit is gradually reduced for more expensive homes and is eliminated at $1.85 million, with a home at that price receiving a $24,000 discount.

The two governments also announced an $8.8-billion fund in March to help municipalities reduce development charges, which are fees builders pay for infrastructure such as utilities and other services. While that program could provide more meaningful relief over the longer term, the HST reduction was the more immediate boost the industry needed.

The OHBA says the province once sold 50,000 new homes a year. In 2025, that number fell to just 14,000 total homes sold.

BILD says the early response to the HST program provides some confidence that the market is moving toward those earlier levels, with further momentum expected.

“It is incredibly positive to know that 4,765 families across Ontario were able to purchase new homes as a result of the enhanced HST rebate program,” said Justin Sherwood, Chief Operating Officer of BILD.

Sherwood said the impact of the program extends beyond home sales. Based on the additional new home sales in the second quarter of 2026, BILD estimates that during the first 3 months of the program, 17,300 construction jobs were protected, approximately $2.8 billion in GDP was preserved and about $1.4 billion in gross government revenues was maintained.

Andison also pointed out that the full benefit of the Development Charge Reduction Program (DCRP) has yet to show up in Q2 numbers.

Details of the newly introduced DCRP are only now in place, and the first announcement for the City of Toronto was on June 23rd. More details on development charge reductions in municipalities across Ontario are expected to follow.

That could provide another boost to the industry as lower costs make it easier for builders to move projects forward and get more shovels in the ground.

With new home construction having declined in recent years, there had been growing concern that Ontario could face a shortage of housing supply for several years down the road. Moffatt said the recent change could help ease some of those concerns.

“Some of those people who might’ve waited three or four years to go into the market, they’re coming into the market now, so it allows us to kind of spread out the demand a little bit,” he said.

Moffatt also suggested that if the HST program continues to perform well, he believes it could be extended beyond March 31, 2027.

This place is actually quite nice...great sat lunch...so pretty!!🍷

Peach festival in NOTL...streets busy...lots of vendors and yes pepper was a main attraction 🌶🌶🌶🤣