Sydney Goldberg

🔥 FIRE DANGER INCREASING

Extreme heat and very little rainfall are drying out soil and vegetation across the area, increasing the risk of fires starting and spreading.

With continued heat and little rainfall in the forecast, wildfire risk is becoming a growing concern.

Make sure you follow any local burn bans and avoid outdoor burning where prohibited.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for the following parishes/counties until 8/17 5:00PM: Amite, St. Helena, Tangipahoa.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for the following parishes/counties until 8/17 5:00PM: Tangipahoa, Amite, Pike, St. Helena.

🥵 RECORD HEAT FOR BATON ROUGE?

We could tie today's record high temperature for Baton Rouge, with another near-record high possible tomorrow.

Another extreme heat warning is in place today and is likely again tomorrow. Stay safe and stay cool!

Real quiet on the creek... and in the Atlantic.

We're down to just one disturbance highlighted for potential tropical development across the Atlantic, and it has a very low chance of development over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days.

The system will encounter strong upper-level winds east of the Lesser Antilles, making conditions less favorable for development.

🥵 DANGEROUS HEAT DOME IN PLACE

Dangerously hot conditions are in place this weekend and will likely continue into early next week.

An extreme heat warning is in effect for feels-like temperatures that could reach as high as 114° in some areas.

Remember: Heat illness risk is cumulative. Several days of high heat can take a toll on your body, especially if you spend extended periods outdoors.

Stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks, and find ways to cool down throughout the day.

NEW TROPICS: Three areas are being monitored for development across the Atlantic.

🔴 INVEST 92L — HIGH CHANCE

Invest 92L is located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression will likely form as it moves west to west-northwest across the central tropical Atlantic, and a short-lived tropical storm is possible.

Farther west, though, the environment becomes less favorable. Strong upper-level winds and wind shear in the Caribbean are expected to weaken the system.

🟠 INVEST 93L — MEDIUM CHANCE

Invest 93L is located east-northeast of Bermuda. Some development remains possible through tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form as it moves east to east-northeast.

But the system is forecast to reach cooler waters by Thursday, ending its chances for further development.

🟡 TROPICAL WAVE — LOW CHANCE

A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa has a low chance of development over the next several days as it moves west to west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Long-range guidance currently shows the system curving around an area of high pressure to its northwest.

As of now, there is no threat to the Gulf or the lower 48. We will continue to keep you updated.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING?

Sometimes when people see meteorologists use maps like the one below full of lines, they wonder, what's the point? But the overnight run of the European model ensembles provide a good example of the value in these maps.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives an area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic a 70% chance of becoming the season's next tropical depression. What happens next?

Well, the European model ensembles show that if it continues westward, strong wind shear will likely mean its demise as it moves into the Caribbean. Note the cluster of lines that comes to an end near the Lesser Antilles.

On the other hand, a more northward turn near the Lesser Antilles may allow it to avoid the most significant wind shear and could even lead to strengthening.

Either way, the threat to the Lower 48 looks quite low at this point.

But here's a good example of the information that can be gleaned from a map like this one that is full of "spaghetti".