RSC AgroTech

Phosphate Fertilizer Prices Are Rising. Is Cutting Application Really the Answer?

Phosphate fertilizer is getting harder to ignore in the farm budget.

Sulfur prices have surged to more than US$1,000 per tonne in recent months, putting additional pressure on the cost of producing phosphate fertilizers such as DAP and MAP. Agricultural economists at the University of Illinois note that higher sulfur costs are already feeding into higher phosphate fertilizer prices.

So a very understandable question is emerging among growers:
If phosphate fertilizer is becoming more expensive, can we simply apply less?

It sounds logical.

But there is a catch.

There is phosphorus in the soil. But how much of it can the crop actually use?

After years of fertilizer application, some fields may contain considerable amounts of phosphorus.
But soil phosphorus is not one single pool.
Some phosphorus is readily available to plants. Some becomes fixed or otherwise less available depending on soil conditions.

So having more phosphorus in the soil does not necessarily mean having more phosphorus available to the crop.

This is where the soil's biological system becomes interesting.

The soil is not just a storage tank.
It is a living system.

Organic matter provides carbon and energy that support microbial activity. And certain functional microorganisms can participate in nutrient cycling.

For example, phosphate-solubilizing microorganisms can help transform some less-available forms of phosphorus through mechanisms involving organic acids and phosphatase enzymes, potentially improving phosphorus availability to plants.

They don't create phosphorus.
They help unlock part of what is already there.

That distinction matters.

Because the goal is not necessarily:
“Use less phosphorus.”

It may be:
“Make better use of the phosphorus we already apply.”

This changes the fertilizer conversation.

Instead of looking at mineral fertilizer alone, more attention is being given to the interaction between:
Mineral nutrients + organic matter + soil biology + roots

This is one reason organic-inorganic compound fertilizers are gaining attention in nutrient management.

The mineral component supplies readily available N, P and K.
The organic component provides a source of organic matter that can support soil biological activity and contribute to longer-term improvements in soil conditions.

When appropriate functional microorganisms are included, they can further participate in nutrient transformation.

It is not about replacing phosphate fertilizer overnight.
It is about asking a different question:
Can we improve nutrient-use efficiency without simply adding more fertilizer?

Because when fertilizer prices rise, the smartest calculation may not be:
“How many kilograms can we cut?”

It may be:
“How much value can we get from every kilogram we apply?”

That is a very different approach to fertilizer management.

China Tightens. OCP Expands. Is the Global Phosphate Trade Being Rewritten?

OCP is moving ahead with one of the largest phosphate fertilizer expansion programs in the market.

Under its SP2M program, OCP plans to add around 4.5 million tonnes/year of fertilizer capacity by the end of 2026, rising to 9 million tonnes/year by 2028. The company plans to invest around $14 billion between 2025 and 2027, including $5.25 billion in 2026 alone.
That timing matters.

Global phosphate trade is becoming less predictable. China has tightened phosphate exports, while supply disruptions elsewhere have increased pressure on import-dependent markets. At the same time, the U.S. temporarily suspended certain duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports in June, highlighting how important alternative supply has become.

OCP is expanding around major hubs including Jorf Lasfar, Safi and the new Mzinda platform, strengthening its integrated phosphate-to-fertilizer supply chain.

The bigger story may not be the extra 9 million tonnes itself.
It is where those tonnes will eventually flow.

As traditional supply routes become less predictable, Morocco could become increasingly important in reshaping global phosphate trade.

For buyers, the phosphate market may be entering a period where origin diversification matters almost as much as price.

Why Does the Same Rainfall Produce Different Results?

Imagine two fields.

At 9 a.m., both receive the same 50 mm of rain.
By the afternoon, both have received exactly the same amount of water.

But three days later, one crop is still growing comfortably.
The other is already showing signs of water stress.

How can that happen?

Because the crop doesn't actually care how much rain fell from the sky.
It cares about how much of that water made it into the root zone, stayed there, and remained available to the roots.

Think of the soil as a water bank.

🌧️ Rain is the deposit.
But the soil has to accept the deposit first.
If the surface is compacted or sealed, water can run off before it enters the soil. USDA research identifies compaction, soil structure and organic matter as important factors affecting infiltration.

🕳️ Then comes storage.
Once water enters the soil, its fate depends on the soil's pore structure.
Some pores allow water and air to move.
Others hold water against gravity.
The goal isn't simply to have more water.
It's to have water stored where roots can actually reach it.

🌱 And then comes availability.
This is where the story gets interesting.
A soil can contain water without all of that water being equally accessible to plants.
USDA describes Available Water Holding Capacity (AWC) as the amount of water soil can hold that is available for plant use. Soil structure and organic matter influence this capacity.
And organic matter is surprisingly powerful.
According to USDA NRCS, soil organic matter can hold 10 to 1,000 times more water and nutrients than the same amount of soil minerals.

That doesn't mean adding organic matter automatically turns dry soil into a reservoir.
It means something more important:

The way soil is built determines how much rainfall can become useful water.

So when we talk about drought resilience, perhaps we shouldn't only ask:
“How much rain did the field receive?”

We should also ask:
“What happened to that rain after it hit the soil?”

Did it run off?
Did it infiltrate?
Was it stored?
Could the roots reach it?
Could the crop still access it several days later?

Rainfall is the input.
Soil determines much of what happens next.

And perhaps this is one of the most overlooked parts of crop water management:
You don't only manage water from above the ground.
You also manage the system that receives it.

El Niño Is Getting Stronger. What Happens Inside a Plant When Water Becomes Scarce?

El Niño is no longer just a forecast.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. WMO forecasts a nearly 100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, with its intensity expected to peak toward the end of 2026. The associated shifts in rainfall and temperature could increase drought risk in some regions.

For agriculture, this raises a more specific question:
What actually happens inside a crop when water becomes scarce?

Drought is not simply a shortage of water around the roots.

When water availability falls, plants face a chain reaction:
Less water → lower cellular water status → oxidative stress → impaired photosynthesis and growth.

This is where biochemical fulvic acid becomes interesting.

Research on fulvic acid under drought conditions suggests several mechanisms that may help plants cope with this chain reaction.

🌱 1. Supporting root function
Fulvic acid has been associated with improved root growth under drought, potentially helping plants explore soil and access the water and nutrients that remain available.

💧 2. Supporting cellular water status
Plants can respond to water deficit by adjusting compounds such as proline and soluble sugars. These osmolytes help regulate the water status of cells.
Studies have found that fulvic acid treatment can influence these drought-response metabolites, including increased proline accumulation under stress.

🛡️ 3. Managing oxidative stress
Water shortage can increase reactive oxygen species, creating oxidative pressure inside plant cells.
Recent research has found that fulvic acid treatment can enhance antioxidant-related responses, including enzymes such as CAT and other radical-scavenging systems, while reducing indicators of oxidative damage.

So the point is not that fulvic acid creates water.

It doesn't.

Fulvic acid may help plants better manage the water they still have.

That distinction matters.

As climate variability increases, fertilizer management may need to look beyond nutrient supply alone.

The question may become:
How can we help crops use limited water and nutrients more efficiently?

And that is where biochemical fulvic acid deserves a closer look.

Sulfur Is Getting Cheaper at Origin. But Is It Really Getting Cheaper?

QatarEnergy Marketing has set its September Qatar Sulphur Price at **$880/t FOB**, down $10/t from August.

At first glance, that looks like a small relief for buyers.

But the delivered-cost story is very different.

🚢 Argus assessed freight from the Middle East to China at **$145–160/t** for a 30,000–35,000t cargo on August 27.

That puts the estimated landed cost at around **$1,025–1,040/t CFR**, before additional war-risk insurance.

And this is where the market gets interesting.

Vancouver sulfur was assessed at **$1,050–1,200/t FOB**, considerably higher than Qatar's September QSP.

Yet freight from Vancouver to China was only **$33–37/t** for a typical 50,000–60,000t cargo.

In other words:
The cheaper FOB price is not necessarily the cheaper delivered price.

Hormuz disruptions are changing the sulfur trade in a more fundamental way. The issue is no longer simply where sulfur is cheapest at origin, but how much it costs to actually get it to the buyer.

That could gradually reshape sourcing decisions across China and other major Asian markets.

For sulfur, logistics are no longer a side cost.
They are becoming part of the price.

Field Note #260908 | Sugarcane 🌱

About two out of every three spoonfuls of sugar
produced in China come from Guangxi.

The 2025/26 crushing season has now come to an end, and Guangxi delivered some impressive numbers.
60.93 million tonnes of sugarcane crushed.
7.70 million tonnes of sugar produced.
Sugar production up 19.06% year-on-year.

But today, I wasn't looking at the numbers.
I was standing in the field.

Measuring stalk diameter.
Checking internode length.
Looking closely at how this season's sugarcane is growing.

After months of frequent rain, I was curious to see what we would actually find.
The answer was right in front of us.

Thick stalks. Long internodes. Strong growth.

Of course, a good sugarcane crop is never the result of just one thing.
Variety. Weather. Soil. Field management.
And every decision made throughout the season.

Sometimes, you understand agriculture better when you step away from the reports and into the field.

What If Your Crop Doesn't Need More Fertilizer?

A field isn't performing the way it should.

The response is often predictable.
Add more fertilizer.

More nitrogen.
More potassium.
Another application.

The logic seems simple:
If the crop isn't growing well, it probably needs more nutrients.

But what if it doesn't?
What if the field has already received enough?

And the real problem isn't the amount of fertilizer being applied.....but how effectively the soil can support the use of those nutrients?

Think of it like food and digestion.

Mineral nutrients are the food.
Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium provide the essential nutrients crops need to grow.
But eating more food doesn't automatically make a person healthier.
The body still needs a system capable of processing and using what it receives.

Soil works in much the same way.
Adding more nutrients is one thing.
Helping the soil function better is another.

And that's where organic matter becomes important.

**Mineral nutrients feed the crop.
Organic matter helps the soil do its job.**

Organic matter can help support soil moisture retention, particularly in dry or sandy soils.
It can also serve as an energy source for soil microbial communities, supporting biological activity in the soil.

Over time, better soil conditions can support the restoration of soil fertility and help improve conditions associated with intensive cultivation and soil compaction.

The goal isn't simply to keep adding more.
It's to create better conditions for the nutrients already being applied to be used more effectively.

That's why we combine them.

Mineral nutrients provide what the crop needs.
Organic matter helps support the soil system that receives those nutrients.

One feeds the crop.
The other helps the soil work.

Together, the goal isn't simply to:
Feed the crop more.

It's to:
**Feed efficiently.
Build better soil conditions.
Get more from every application.**

And that's exactly why our NutriFusion Series combines organic matter with mineral nutrients.

Because better fertilizer design isn't always about adding more.
Sometimes, it's about getting more from what you're already applying.

The Next Food Shock May Not Come From One Crisis.

It may come from several crises arriving at the same time.
Grain markets are already under pressure.

According to recent market analysis, cereal prices, including wheat, corn, barley and rice, were up sharply year-on-year by July. At the same time, USDA forecasts point to a shrinking margin between global grain production and consumption in the 2026/27 season. For wheat in particular, consumption is expected to exceed production.

And the risks are starting to overlap.

🚢 The Middle East: Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect fertilizer, sulfur and energy flows.

🌾 The Black Sea: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for about 27.3% of global wheat exports, while recent attacks and shipping disruptions are forcing exporters to rethink traditional routes.

🌡️ The weather: A developing El Niño is adding another layer of uncertainty for agriculture, particularly for crops such as cocoa, coffee, rice and sugar.

Any one of these risks would be difficult to manage on its own.

The problem is that they are no longer arriving one at a time.

Higher fertilizer costs can squeeze farm margins.
Shipping disruptions can delay grain flows.
Extreme weather can reduce crop production.

Together, they leave the global food system with less room for error.

And perhaps that is the real signal the market should be watching:
The next food-price shock may not require one major crisis. Several smaller shocks arriving at the same time could be enough.

The question is no longer simply how to respond when the crisis arrives.

It is whether agriculture can adapt before the shock reaches the harvest.

Because once the planting window is gone, preparation becomes recovery.
And recovery is always more expensive.

When China Returns, Who Feels It First?

The phosphate market is watching China again.
There is still uncertainty around the future of China's phosphate fertilizer exports. Recent market reports have suggested that export restrictions could ease, while other signals remain more cautious.

So, China's return is still a question, not yet a market fact.
But that question is worth asking.

Because if Chinese phosphate supply starts returning to the international market, the first impact may not be lower prices.
It may be a reshuffling of global trade.

1. Trade flows could change first
When Chinese phosphate exports became more restricted, international buyers had to look elsewhere.
Other suppliers gained a larger role in serving the seaborne market.
If Chinese supply returns, global demand will not suddenly increase.
Farmers will not suddenly need more phosphate simply because another supplier becomes available.
Instead, the first change could be much simpler:
Buyers may start buying from different suppliers.
China's return may not create more demand.
It may redistribute supply.
And that could begin reshaping trade flows before it has any visible impact on global prices.

2. Other suppliers may feel it before farmers do
The first pressure may fall on competing exporters.
When supply options are limited, suppliers generally have more pricing power.
But when another major source becomes available, buyers have more options.
The key question is not simply:
How much phosphate can China export?
It may be:
Which suppliers will need to defend their market share if Chinese cargoes become available again?
Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other major suppliers could all become part of that conversation.

3. Prices may not be the first signal
A return of Chinese supply does not automatically mean cheaper phosphate.
The market is still influenced by:
• Sulfur costs
• Ammonia and phosphate rock economics
• Freight and logistics
• Geopolitical risks
• Regional demand
• Available inventories
But additional supply options could change something else first:
Negotiating power.
China's return may change the balance of the market before it changes the price chart.

4. Then, buyers begin to react
Major importing markets such as India and Brazil will naturally be watched closely.
But the first market signal may appear long before a major tender or a visible change in import volumes.
It could be:
• Chinese FOB offers returning to the market
• Buyers requesting new quotations
• Alternative suppliers adjusting their offers
• Trade routes beginning to shift

The first signal may not appear on a price chart.
It may appear in conversations happening before a contract is signed.

So, when China returns, who feels it first?
The buyer?
The competing supplier?
Or the global phosphate market itself?
What do you think will change first?

Fertilizer Prices May Not Be Coming Back. Is Agriculture Ready?

The fertilizer price spike may be cooling.
But according to CoBank’s latest analysis, the high-cost era may not be.

Fertilizer prices are expected to remain above pre-conflict levels through 2028. For 2027, NDSU projections cited by CoBank put average prices at $496/t for urea, $666 for DAP, $660 for MAP, $619 for anhydrous ammonia and $361 for UAN.

These are not crisis-level prices.
But they are also not a return to the old normal.

And the supply problem is bigger than one disrupted shipping route.

CoBank estimates that 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East have been directly affected or shut down. Another 49 plants across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have curtailed or halted production because of feedstock shortages, while at least 20 Russian plants have been damaged by drone attacks.

The Middle East supplies more than 60 million tonnes of fertilizers and raw materials globally each year, with about 45 million tonnes moving through the Strait of Hormuz. It also accounts for roughly 50% of globally traded sulfur and more than 30% of global urea exports.

So the real issue may not be another price spike.
It may be a permanently higher cost base.

And that changes the question.

Farmers may reduce phosphate and potash applications. Retailers may delay inventory commitments. Buyers may look harder at logistics, formulation and nutrient efficiency.

Perhaps the fertilizer industry now needs to think beyond “Where can we buy cheaper?”

The better question may be:
“How can we produce the same crop with a more resilient and predictable nutrient cost?”

That could mean better fertilizer efficiency, alternative formulations, smarter application, local production, or simply more diversified supply.

The price shock may eventually fade.
The lessons from it probably won't.