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3 Numbers To Watch: DE retail sales, EU CPI, UK consumer credit!

• January boost in German retail sales unsustainable
• Consumer spending remains a critical driver for the UK’s recovery
• Encouraging signs in EU, but inflation data could disappoint

Retail sales in Germany will kick off Monday's trading day in Europe, followed by an update on consumer credit in the UK. Later, we’ll see a report that could be a major news event in macro for the week ahead: the flash estimate of Eurozone consumer price inflation for March. Keep in mind, too, that the Bank of England releases new money supply data (08:30 GMT).

Germany Retail Sales (06:00 GMT) The sharp improvement in economic sentiment in the Eurozone last month offers another tantalizing number for wondering if the Continent’s macro trend is finally poised for better days. The jury’s still out and probably will be for several more months. Meantime, there’s a growing collection of numbers that leave a bit more room for upbeat forecasts. That includes Friday’s update of the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator, which increased to the highest level in nearly three years. Indeed, the five-biggest economies in the Eurozone reported higher levels of optimism, according to this benchmark.

Deciding if there’s a genuine improvement requires looking for confirmation in the hard data. That’s going to take time, although it starts with today’s update on retail spending in Germany for February. It’s interesting to note that consumption in Europe’s largest economy surged in January by 2.5 percent over the previous month — the most since 2007. Some of this is attributable to a snap-back from December’s unusually steep decline and so the January pop is unsustainable. Research firm Gfk projects only a “slight” increase for retail spending this year in Germany. But to the extent that Europe’s growth engine can maintain forward momentum in the all-important consumer sector, improving confidence generally will translate into stronger odds for thinking that the worst may really be over this time.

The main risk, of course, is the potential for macro blowback via the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It’s unclear how this plays out at this point and so good news on the economic front could be subject to change for geopolitical reasons. Otherwise, we’re still at the point when much depends on Germany and so today’s release will set the tone for looking ahead.

UK Consumer Credit (08:30 GMT) Consumer spending remains a critical driver for the UK’s recovery, as last week’s better-than-expected report on retail sales for February reminds. Economists were looking for a moderate rise of 0.4 percent in the monthly comparison. Instead, the Office for National Statistics reported a sizzling 1.7 percent surge, which pushed the annual change up to a 3.7 percent advance.

“The UK consumer is powering on, helped by improving pay growth, subsiding inflation and very low interest rates,” Berenberg’s chief UK economist told Reuters after the data was released. “Even the rain during February did not appear to dampen spirits on the high street.”

Some analysts worry that Britain’s recovery is overly dependent on the consumer and too little on business investment. That may be a problem for the longer run, but for now the retail momentum looks set to dominate. Indeed, there are new projections in some quarters for a substantial improvement in the growth of real wages, which has been soft lately. If so, February’s impressive gain in retail sales may be a sign of things to come for the rest of 2014. In turn, we may see a substantial rise in today’s monthly update on consumer credit from the Bank of England. Credit-card debt has been stuck in a range for much of the past year with a ceiling of about GBP 300 million to GBP 320m. A breakout above that level in today’s February release would be taken as another signal that consumer spending will continue to rise in the months ahead.

A buying binge may worry some analysts, but increased demand for credit will be seen as a bullish sign for the near term. Consumers certainly aren’t worried. Gfk’s UK Consumer Confidence Index in March posted a strong increase. “Over the last year the overall index has risen by a massive 22 points — the biggest single-year rise since November 2008-October 2009 and there hasn’t been a bigger one-year rise since July 1977-June 1978,” a Gfk analyst said during last week’s release.

EU Consumer Price Index (09:00 GMT) There are some encouraging signs in Europe’s economic reports these days, but if there’s a spoiler waiting in the wings it may show up in today's inflation data. In the previous release, the February estimate of consumer prices was a stark reminder that there’s still a strong whiff of disinflation in the Eurozone. The harmonized consumer price index (CPI) slipped to a 0.7 percent year-over-year increase through last month, matching a low point in October's data. The previous dip to 0.7 percent moved the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates and reassure the market that monetary policy would remain focused on keeping the disinflation/deflation risk from gaining momentum. It’s debatable if falling prices are still a viable threat, although one can argue that the European Central Bank has at least stabilized the growth rate for the money supply, or so last week’s M3 numbers suggest.

In any case, there are no illusions about what’s at stake in today’s flash CPI estimate for March. With inflation bumping along at unusually low levels, the central bank can’t afford to let the pace sink any further. But it’s too soon to rule out that possibility, as implied by last week’s unexpectedly soft numbers on March consumer inflation numbers for Germany and Spain. Some analysts are already saying that the ECB will be forced to roll out a new phase of monetary stimulus at this Thursday’s policy announcement. The odds will certainly rise for expecting more ECB action later this week if today’s annual CPI number falls again.

CPI, Retail Sales Headline Sterling’s Outlook

The British pound was treading water Monday, as the forex market eyes an active data wire headlined by the consumer price index and retail sales.

Observers of sterling will note the currency’s relative weakness in recent weeks. The markets became jittery about the pound after Bank of England officials pondered about the UK’s struggling export market. In a speech to the North East Chamber of Commerce two weeks ago, out-going BOE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean expressed concern that any additional strength for the pound could weigh on Britain’s export-based recovery. Since then, sterling has lost more than 1.3 percent against its US rival.

The pound extended its losses last week after the US Federal Reserve hinted at a possible rate hike as early as Q2 2015.

Data on consumer price inflation and retail sales could help shore up the pound this week. The Office for National Statistics could show annual consumer price inflation ease from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent in February, according to forecasts. While easing inflation certainly supports struggling UK households, who reported stronger than forecast earnings growth in the three months through January, this will likely place further pressure on the pound.

The ONS’ retail sales report will hit the markets Thursday. The report could show retail receipts rose 0.5 percent in February, following the sharpest decline in nearly two years.

Market participants should use this week’s data to size the pace of UK recovery, and determine whether the BOE could be compelled to shift its stance on monetary policy sooner than expected.

In the morning North American session, the GBPUSD pair was trading at 1.6478, virtually unchanged from its previous close.

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Keep It Simple, Central Bankers!

This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both made welcome moves toward more simplicity. Specifically, they recast the "forward guidance" they'd previously given investors about their intentions.

Both central banks have been surprised by unexpectedly rapid falls in unemployment. The Fed had previously promised not to start raising interest rates before unemployment in the U.S. had fallen to 6.5 percent. At 6.6 percent, it's almost there -- but the recovery is still weak and the Fed has no intention of raising rates for a good while yet. The Bank of England's unemployment threshold was 7 percent. That's probably already been reached, but the U.K. also will most likely need low interest rates for many months to come.

It was a mistake all along to make specific rates of unemployment "thresholds" for adjusting monetary policy. The state of the labor market is crucial for judging policy, but it isn't the only factor; in any case, the headline rate of unemployment doesn't accurately measure labor-market conditions. U.S. unemployment has fallen rapidly partly because workers are quitting the labor force, not just because they're getting jobs. There's plenty of room for the U.K.'s economy to grow, too, despite the unexpectedly rapid fall in unemployment.

In both countries, adding unemployment rates to the guidance was meant to support demand by convincing investors that interest rates would stay very low for longer. This was the right objective under the circumstances. Then the unemployment measure started getting smaller -- and investors began to get confused. Rather than clarify their guidance, thus making it even more complicated, new Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and the Bank of England's Mark Carney rightly chose to make it simpler.

Carney's new formulation omits the unemployment rate altogether, and he says instead that the Bank of England "will not take risks with the recovery." There's plenty of spare capacity, he said, and even when that starts to run out, the bank will raise rates slowly and cautiously. The bank also published more information on its economic forecasts than it has before, showing it currently expects rates to stay put until mid-2015.

Yellen wasn't quite so forthright in abandoning the Fed's unemployment threshold, but what she said amounts to the same thing. The fact that headline unemployment is close to 6.5 percent tells investors approximately nothing -- and that's official. She said the Fed is now looking beyond traditional measures of unemployment to judge the tightness of the labor market and detect any incipient pressure on inflation.

This new balance makes sense. Give investors more information and explain the thinking more fully -- but don't tie policy to specific indicators, and don't make promises (or seem to make promises) you don't intend to keep.

Goldman's 5 Key Questions For Janet Yellen!

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver her inaugural monetary policy testimony on February 11 and 13. Her prepared remarks will be released at 8:30amET and the testimony will begin at 10amET. Goldman, unlike the market of the last 3 days, believes that Ms. Yellen is likely to "stick to the script" in her first public remarks since taking over from Bernanke but they look for additional color on the following issues: (1) the recent patch of softer data; (2) the Fed's thinking on EM weakness; (3) the hurdle for stopping the taper; (4) the amount of slack in the labor market; and (5) the future of forward guidance.

USD/JPY: Trading the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI!

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers active in the services sector of the economy. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in the US. A reading that is higher than the estimate is bullish for the US dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

Market analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers on the economy, as the latter are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could be an indication of the health of the economy. An unexpected reading from the index could affect the movement of USD/JPY.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI has lost ground in the past two releases, missing the estimate each time. In December, the reading of 53.0 was the index’s lowest level in six months. The estimate for the January release stands at 53.6 points. Will the index beat this prediction?

Sentiments and levels

Last week, the Federal Reserve tapered QE for the second time in two months and this reduction was an important vote of confidence in the US economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is moving full steam ahead with its current aggressive monetary program, which cost the yen close to 20% of its value in 2013. Thus, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 104.65, 104, 102.50, 101.44, 100.85 and 100.

5 Scenarios

1, Within expectations: 51.6 to 55.6: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2, Above expectations: 55.7 to 58.7: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
3, Well above expectations: Above 58.7: The chances of a sharp expansion are low. Such an outcome would likely prop up USD/JPY, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
4, Below expectations: 48.5 to 51.5: A sharper decrease than forecast could cause the pair to lose one level of support.
5, Well below expectations: Below 48.5: In this outcome, USD/JPY would likely drop, possibly breaking below a second support level.

3 Numbers to Watch: German unemployment, US GDP, jobless claims!

• German unemployment expected to highlight Eurozone schism
• Austerity-led strategy ongoing despite periphery weakness
• US Q4 GDP expected to tick along at steady 3 percent growth

Thursday’s a busy day for economic reports, including Germany’s unemployment update. Later, we’ll see the first US GDP estimate for last year’s fourth quarter along with the weekly initial jobless claims release for the US. Meanwhile, don’t overlook the arrival of new monetary data for the UK (09:30 GMT) or the EU economic sentiment report (10:00 GMT).

Germany Unemployment (08:55 GMT) Yesterday’s news that the growth rate of the money supply tumbled in the Eurozone raises the risk disinflation/deflation… again. That's a problem because inflation has been at or near record lows lately for EU history; bank lending to private firms continues to decline; and the "recovery" across Europe is feeble at best. The ongoing deceleration in the year-over-year growth of money supply isn't helping. In fact, we're at the point where it may become fatal in a macro sense if this dark trend is allowed to persist much longer. Broad money (M3) increased a thin one percent in the 12 months through December — down sharply from 1.5 percent in the previous month, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported. "The weakness of the monetary aggregates remains a warning sign that the fight to ward off deflationary pressures has not been won yet," an ING economist told Reuters.

Meantime, today’s unemployment report for Germany will likely provide another example of the exception to Europe’s dangerous flirtation with the “d” risk. But in the wake of the soft data for EU money supply, the market will have another excuse to focus on the fact that Germany’s resilience still represents a sharp contrast with the rest of Europe. The president of the European Commission recently tried to talk up the prospects for recovery, but then admitted that "we're not out of the crisis with such high levels of unemployment." The encouraging numbers that we’ll probably see for Germany today, although welcome, will remind everyone that there’s still a festering problem elsewhere in Europe and one that even the Continent’s main growth engine can’t fix without broader support from the ECB.

A Berlin train whisks commuters to work as Germany gets ready for a positive unemployment report. Photo: Pelucco \ Thinkstock

The irony is that the ECB is constrained by Germany's hefty influence on all things monetary in the Eurozone, an influence that continues to lean toward austerity rather than stimulus. It's anyone's guess how long political tolerance will endure for an austerity-for-all policy bias that's generally inappropriate for every nation save one.

US Q4 GDP (13:30 GMT) Economists think we’ll see a decent rate of growth in today’s initial estimate of GDP for last year’s fourth quarter. The consensus forecast anticipates a 3.0 percent rise (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for Q4, which is in line with my econometric projection. That’s well below Q3’s 4.1 percent advance, but the prediction is still an encouraging number that, if realised, will keep the bears on the defensive. “Overall, the report should show a healthy end to 2013 and momentum heading into 2014,” advised an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

It’s already clear that the US economy has been growing at a moderate pace lately. Consider last week’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which advanced at an above-trend pace in December, based on the benchmark’s three-month average. My big-picture analysis of the US economy also suggests that the forward momentum is intact through last month. Yes, a number of headwinds continue to weigh on the outlook — the soft rate of jobs growth in particular remains unimpressive lately. But given the generally upbeat numbers for a range of indicators in recent months, it would be surprising to see today’s GDP number deliver a big downside move.

US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT) Today’s GDP report will grab most of the attention for US economic news, but the weekly claims report still deserves attention for deciding how the macro trend is unfolding. For the moment, the numbers look a bit tired on this front. Although claims have come down recently from the surge in December, it’s unclear if the sluggish retreat in new filings for unemployment benefits this month is a sign of a cyclical rough patch or a temporary winter freeze that will thaw with the warmer weather.

Today’s update may provide an answer, in which case we’ll have more traction for guesstimating what the January payrolls report will reveal when it’s published next week (February 7). Meantime, there’s nothing particularly troubling in the claims data of late other than the fact that the decline has slowed. Indeed, new filings fell by a modest 5 percent last week vs. the year-earlier level, the weakest comparison since mid-December. But there's a good chance that the number du jour won't say much of anything. Economists think we’ll see a slight uptick in today’s release. In that case, the outlook for the labour market will continue to look muddled. The optimists say that unusually cold weather throughout the US has squeezed growth generally. In that case, another soft report for claims can be dismissed as noise, although it’ll also be a reminder that next week’s payrolls news could be lackluster too.

Fed poised for $10 billion taper as Bernanke bids adieu!

Turmoil in emerging markets and a month of disappointing job growth at home are unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from trimming its bond-buying stimulus on Wednesday, as Ben Bernanke wraps up his last policy meeting at the helm of the U.S. central bank.

Overall signs of improvement in the U.S. economy suggest Fed officials will stay on track to cut monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each, bringing the total of their monthly asset purchases to $65 billion.

The meeting is Bernanke's last before Vice Chair Janet Yellen moves into the top spot.

Bernanke took the Fed far into uncharted territory during his eight years on the job, building a $4 trillion balance sheet and keeping interest rates near zero for more than five years to pull the economy from its worst downturn in decades.

With those efforts beginning to pay off - and concerns growing over possible harm from so much money printing - the Fed

announced plans last month to phase out the bond buying by late this year unless the economy takes a decided turn for the worse.

It started by trimming its monthly purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, and on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank is expected to shave another $10 billion.

"It's clear the Fed wants to taper," said Eric Stein, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance in Boston.

Even so, the Fed is nowhere near to making a decision to raise rates. Policymakers are expected to stick to their promise to keep rates near zero until well after the U.S. unemployment rate, now at 6.7 percent, falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed is set to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST.

A dismal employment report for December showing businesses added far fewer jobs than expected raised some doubts about the Fed's commitment to keep tapering its stimulus.

But largely upbeat data in recent weeks, from consumer spending and confidence to industrial production, bolstered the view of an improving economy, which forecasters estimate grew at an above-trend annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter after notching a 4.1 percent advance in the previous quarter.

The show of strength provides a welcome backdrop for Bernanke, who steps down on Friday after an unusually tumultuous and highly experimental stint atop the world's most influential central bank.

EMERGING DISTRACTIONS

Steep losses in emerging market assets over the past week led some to question whether the Fed might put plans to trim its bond buying on hold. Analysts said the prospect of less Fed stimulus had added to other worries, from signs of slower growth in China to political turmoil in countries from Turkey to Thailand, and helped spark investors' flight.

But on Wednesday, Turkey's central bank sharply raised its main interest rates, stemming both a slide in the lira and fears about cuts in U.S. monetary stimulus.

That move could make the Fed's decision to trim its bond buying even easier, economists said.

"It would take a full-blown crisis that ensnares all (emerging market economies) to have a material effect on the U.S. economy, and I don't think that's what they see," said Roberto Perli, a former Fed official who is now a Washington-based partner at economic research firm Cornerstone Macro.

"Clearly emerging-market financial markets are in turmoil for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the Fed likely tapering again."

That is not to say the decision will be a slam dunk.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher, who is a voter on the central bank's policy-setting panel this year, has argued for a more aggressive withdrawal of purchases.

On the other end of the spectrum, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, also a voter, has argued for more, not less, stimulus, and that view could translate into a dissent.

Still, the Fed puts a high premium on consensus, and Kocherlakota may feel that presenting a united front on policy could be a stabilizing force for financial markets, Eaton Vance's Stein said.

"I don't think it's completely pro forma," he added, "but I do think the consensus of the committee is to taper, about in line with the last meeting."