Harry Ramsbottom

Iran is going on the offensive - likely because they know they are holding all the cards.

Iran Update Special Report, July 29, 2026: The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. The regime likely calculated that it could degrade the United States’ willingness to continue the conflict by inflicting damage or US casualties during the current “pause” in strikes.

Read the full update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate072926

Other Key Takeaways:

The IRGC Aerospace Force conducted the attack in Jordan, but it is unclear if there was consensus among various regime factions to conduct the attack. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, whom CTP-ISW continues to assess is playing an outsized role in decision-making, almost certainly supported the decision to launch the recent attack on Jordan. Those within the regime’s pro-negotiations camp may have also backed the strikes as they also seek to secure Iranian control over the strait, an end to the US military presence in the region, and other regime objectives.

The Iranian regime also likely sought for its attack on Jordan to signal the regime’s willingness to incur the risk of full-scale conflict with the United States in order to secure control over the strait.

The United States and Saudi Arabia conducted strikes targeting Iranian-backed Iraqi militia weapons and logistics supply sites across Iraq on July 28 in retaliation for Iraqi militia attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and US interests in Iraq and the region.

The United States and Saudi Arabia also conducted several strikes on July 28 along the Iran-Iraq border targeting sites used for the Arbaeen pilgrimages. Iran intended to use the Arbaeen pilgrimage to move weapons and advisers into Iraq, according to Israeli media.

The US and Saudi strikes on July 28 reportedly killed at least four IRGC Quds Force officers in Diyala Province, which underscores the IRGC’s role in overseeing Iraqi militia attacks on the Gulf states and US interests in Iraq.

Iran is attempting to bolster its air defense capabilities with assistance from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and improve its drone capabilities.

The Houthis are threatening to expand their attacks on Saudi targets, likely in order to coerce Saudi Arabia to terminate its blockade against Houthi ports and airports.

Unspecified regional sources also told Reuters on July 29 that the Houthis may start to impose fees on international commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb Strait.

An unspecified actor conducted a drone attack targeting a US-owned tanker at a Mediterranean port in Damietta, Egypt, on July 29.

As President Donald J. Trump’s polling numbers fall - on just about every major subject under his control - Congressional Republicans are FLAILING about, looking for excuses and diversions. They’re furious that invoked his right of silence - conveniently forgetting the himself invoked that right over 400 times during his civil case in NYC just a few years ago.

is losing, and they know it.

Notes:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28520039-cnn-july-poll-conducted-by-ssrs/
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/politics/cnn-poll-donald-trump-midterms-polls-iran-war
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/29/world/middleeast/iran-war-cease-fire-trump-timeline.html
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/its-groundhog-day-in-iran-trump-bombing-power-plants-peace-deal-negotiations-strait-hormuz
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/26/politics/iran-war-casualties
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/oil-price-today-wti-brent-us-iran-hormuz.html
https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910558/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-07-29-26
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-gambles-on-escalation-with-surprise-attack-on-u-s-forces-72cfd422
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/world/live-news/iran-trump-news?post-id=cms5kixno00013b6sy4oovw6f
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/us/politics/trump-iran-military.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/28/president-donald-trump-anthony-fauci-timeline-relationship-coronavirus-pandemic/3718797001/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/us/politics/biden-pardons-fauci-milley-cheney-jan-6.html
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/14/nx-s1-5183846/trump-presidency-retribution-enemies-threats
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/28/politics/anthony-fauci-diary-rand-paul
https://apnews.com/article/fauci-diaries-covid-origins-rand-paul-6b25da9f75a0becbaf2886ab22643e67
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/latest-dr-fauci-invokes-amendment-republican-led-covid-135186465
https://apnews.com/article/fauci-covid19-pandemic-senate-rand-paul-a774a79e46824ebec9e8e270b9cb9825
https://tiffinohio.net/posts/max-miller-gun-hot-water-allegations-republicans-silent/
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/07/assault-misogyny-verbal-threats-records-detail-new-allegations-against-rep-max-miller-bernie-moreno/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/29/anthony-fauci-pandemic-fifth-contempt-rand-paul-01015548

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/29/fauci-set-face-rand-paul-senate-gop-after-release-his-covid-diary/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-senate-panel-questions-fauci-on-diary-entries-about-covid-19-origins

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/us/politics/fauci-biden-pardon-covid-hearing.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/anthony-fauci-5th-amendment-testify-covid-hearing-rand-paul-rcna589793

https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/

https://www.npr.org/2026/07/27/nx-s1-5909531/rand-paul-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-diary-lab-leak-origin

X:
CENTCOM/status/2082231500318114110?s=20
atrupar/status/2082447372198588869

Bluesky:
mickeykuhns.bsky.social/post/3mrkttn5nlk25
profile/atrupar.com/post/3mrs3odif3s2g
atrupar.com/post/3mrs5fds4de2

NEW: Hezbollah’s ability to develop and refine its use of tactical first-person view (FPV) systems represents a significant development that could alter the character of future conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah.

Read the special report: https://isw.pub/HezbollahFPV072926FB

Other Key Takeaway:

Hezbollah’s flawed military campaign between October 7, 2023, and the end of the Israeli campaign in Lebanon in 2024 likely helped trigger tactical innovation within Hezbollah that led to the adoption of tactical FPV drones on a greater scale.

As a lifelong student of History (my father was a History teacher, my BA is in History, and it has been a feature of my entire life), I find this latest move by to be particularly stupid and dangerous.

Notes:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/saving-americas-story/

https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/2026/07/smithsonian-hearing-hartig/688031/

https://americanhistory.si.edu/explore/exhibitions/in-pursuit

https://www.nps.gov/civilwar/facts.htm

https://news.artnet.com/art-world/anthea-hartig-hearing-smithsonian-2789825

https://americanhistory.si.edu/explore/exhibitions/price-of-freedom

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/restoring-trust-in-the-smithsonian-institution-e061/
https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2027-the-white-house-campaign-to-seize-control-of-the-smithsonian-and-rewrite-american-history-committee-report.pdf

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2026/07/26/ive-visited-smithsonian-hundreds-times-it-inspires-wonder-not-division/

https://prospect.org/2026/07/02/what-broke-monticello-thomas-jefferson-virginia-glenn-youngkin/

Remember when we supplied the Afghan mujahideen with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles during the Soviet-Afghan War in the ‘80’s?

Well… evidently China does.


https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=notifications&utm_campaign=2025_engagement

Anyone remember a time when nobody was bothered by oil tanker traffic in the ?

Gee… I wonder what changed…

Iran Update Special Report, July 28, 2026: Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. This group is likely led by elements of the (IRGC), including commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi.

Read the report: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate072826

More Key Takeaways
The “IRGC-Vahidi” group is under pressure from a pro-negotiations and pro-compromise group that likely includes but is not limited to President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This group primarily disagrees with the IRGC-Vahidi group over means, not ends. This group also seeks “control” of the strait, though its definition of control may be less expansive.

The third group is an ultra-hardline faction, the Paydari Front, which opposes all negotiations with the United States. This group is a small minority, but its proximity to power through regime insiders like Saeed Jalili, who is currently a Supreme Leader representative on Iran’s top national security decision-making body — the Supreme National Security Council — and previously chaired the council, would likely require Vahidi and other policymakers to take note of its views.

Concerns from pro-negotiation corners in Iran over continued US sanctions, the US blockade, and economic damage from the war underscore the risk Iran faces in continuing the war indefinitely. Economic challenges caused by the US blockade were among the reasons why Pezeshkian argued the Memorandum of Understanding’s (MOU) case to the supreme leader in June, according to the New York Times, which indicates that at least some regime actors believe the present situation is untenable for Iran.

Iran continues to reject compromises to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz because hardline decisionmakers perceive control of the waterway as the regime’s most reliable means of preserving future leverage. Iran is refusing to give up control of the strait in talks with Omani mediators as the mediators have proposed a formal 10-day truce, according to a US official and mediators speaking to Western media on July 27.

The Houthis claimed to have struck a Saudi vessel on July 28, marking their third claimed attack on Saudi shipping since July 22. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea announced on July 28 that the Houthis fired several ballistic missiles targeting the Saudi-flagged oil and chemical tanker NCC Ghazal for “violating” the Houthi blockade.

The PRC reportedly asked the Houthis to facilitate safe passage for Chinese-owned oil tankers through the Red Sea, according to six informed sources speaking to Reuters on July 28. Reuters, citing commercial ship tracking data, reported on July 28 that at least four tankers transporting Saudi oil to China transited the Bab al Mandeb since the Houthis announced their blockade on July 20.

ICYMI - Russia is losing.

President Donald J. Trump isn’t the only stupid “leader” looking for a way out of an increasingly unpopular war they cannot win.

As the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the time, Dr. Anthony Fauci had a front-row seat to how the administrations of President Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden handled their diagnoses.

kept a near-daily account of what was happening during the health crisis, detailing everything from the latest Covid case numbers and deaths to his phone calls with celebrities and the media.

Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rand Paul obtained the journal entries through subpoenas, his spokesman said. Fauci declined to comment.

Read more: nbcnews.to/4frJzJN