Forisk Consulting

𝗣𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀

With U.K. pellet demand forecast to fall in the near term under all three of Forisk's forecast scenarios, which U.S. South export pellet mills are most exposed?

In the Q3 2026 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘘𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺, we scored 34 export-oriented U.S. South pellet facilities on six weighted risk factors to assess closure risk:

• Cost to port
• Weighted fiber price
• Years since last CAPEX
• Average age
• Vertical integration
• Port control

Each mill was ranked into quartiles on its combined score, showing where the risk sits as the market works through a supply and demand imbalance.

Read more here: https://forisk.com/pellet-mill-risk-factor-analysis/

For full results, or to learn more about the 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘘𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺, contact Nick DiLuzio at [email protected].

Pellet Mill Risk Factor Analysis - Forisk In the Q2 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly, Forisk Consulting forecasted three scenarios of U.K. wood pellet demand with demand falling in the near term in all scenarios. Based on Forisk’s pellet demand forecasts, there will be a supply and demand more…

𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝗽𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗤𝟯 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

After climbing more than 50% from 2021 to 2025, BC Interior pulplog prices have now fallen three straight quarters, down about 13% from 2025 levels. On the Coast, residual chips dropped roughly 15% in a single quarter following the Howe Sound idling.

The driver: fewer mills means fewer buyers. Northwood's pending closure, the Howe Sound idling, and the Quesnel River Pulp curtailment pulled major fiber demand out of the region in Q3 alone. Alberta is the outlier, with SPF chip prices edging up as the province's pulp mills keep running.

Relief on input costs for pulp mills, but another hit for sawmills, loggers, and truckers in an already tough year.

Forisk's Chris King breaks down the numbers from the Q3 2026 Forisk 𝘞𝘰𝘰𝘥 𝘍𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘙𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸

Western Canada's Pulpwood Prices Slide in Q3 2026 - Forisk Western Canada pulpwood and residual chip price changes over the last two years and quarterly, along with mill closures and market impacts.

𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸'𝘀 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗥𝗔'𝘀 𝗪𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁

Brooks talks with Richard Schwab, VP of M.A. Rigoni, and host Clay Altizer about how the wood supply chain has evolved over the course of their careers, what it takes to build a career in the industry today, and the lessons they've learned along the way.

If you work anywhere along the supply chain from the stump to the mill, it's worth a listen.

Listen here: https://forestresources.org/woods-to-mill-the-fra-podcast/

Thanks to the Forest Resources Association for having us!

This is your last chance to register for Forisk's Timber Market Analysis Class, which will be held virtually later this week! Registration closes at midnight tomorrow! https://hubs.ly/Q04yqP9j0

𝗤𝟯 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: 𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦., 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮.

The latest 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘞𝘰𝘰𝘥 𝘍𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘙𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸 shows U.S. pulpwood and chip prices flat for the quarter and down 8% year-over-year, while Canadian prices fell 4% for the quarter.

What's driving it:

📉 Oversupply hit the Pacific Northwest and Coastal BC hard, with Northwest softwood chips down 13% and BC chips down 10%
📈 Fuel and transportation costs pushed prices up in the Lake States and Southeast
🌧️ Southeast buyers found the bottom in Q2, and wet weather added support

With trade uncertainty and fuel costs weighing on buyers and sellers alike, regional detail matters more than ever.

Read the full release:

forisk.com

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝘃𝘀. 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 — 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗽 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘁 𝗮 𝟯𝟴-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱.

In 2025, timberland EBITDDA came in at 1.65% vs. a 4.29% average yield on 10-yr Treasuries — a 2.64-point spread, the widest since NCREIF's index began. And it's still widening: Treasuries have since topped 5%, while trailing EBITDDA fell to 1.55% as of Q2 2026.

We dug into what's driving it — including a structural buildup in Southern softwood inventory dating back to the Great Recession — in our latest blog post.

Read it here: https://forisk.com/timberlands-cash-yield-vs-u-s-treasuries-a-38-year-gut-check/

Want the full data behind it? Our Q3 2026 FRQ digs deeper into this trend. Reach out to Nick DiLuzio ([email protected]) to learn more.

forisk.com

⏰ 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸’𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀.

National economic trends matter, but timber investment and operating decisions ultimately depend on what’s happening in local markets and wood baskets.

In his latest blog, Brooks Mendell explores how macroeconomic forces connect to local timber markets—and why understanding local supply, demand, competition, and risk is essential for informed decision-making.

These topics are also central to Forisk’s virtual Timber Market Analysis class on September 30 and October 1.

𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

🔗TMA Class Registration: https://forisk.com/education-speaking/timber-market-analysis-class/

🔗Blog post: https://forisk.com/local-timber-markets-have-macroeconomic-exposures-too/

𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗨𝗦 𝘀𝗮𝘄𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗮𝘄𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 — 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆.

US South sawmills plan to add 2.1 billion board feet of net capacity from 2026-2028. Canadian sawmills, meanwhile, removed 1.7 billion board feet in 2025-2026 combined.

"Sawmills in the US South plan to add 2.1 billion board feet of lumber production capacity from 2026 to 2028, net of closures," says Amanda Lang, President and COO of Forisk Consulting. "Meanwhile, Canadian sawmills continue to close."

Highlights:
• US South: New mill starts and expansions across AL, MS, GA, SC, and LA
• US North/West: J.D. Irving nearly doubling Ashland, ME capacity (130 → 250 MMBF)
• Canada: Carrier, Western Forest Products, and Canfor curtailing or closing BC/SK/AB sawmills

Forisk tracks 2,350+ forest industry mills — including planned capacity changes — through the North American Forest Industry Capacity Database and Forisk Research Quarterly.

Read more:https://forisk.com/wp-content/uploads/Press-Release_Mill-DB_20260908.pdf

The early-bird rate ends in two weeks for Forisk's upcoming Timber Market Analysis Class! Register by September 16th to save!
Click here to learn more and register online: https://hubs.ly/Q04wKwl40

𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝗽 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿

31 U.S. wood-using pulp mills have closed since 2019. Forisk's new white paper looks at why — and what policymakers can do about it.

𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘗𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘺 𝘖𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜.𝘚. 𝘗𝘶𝘭𝘱 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘗𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘳 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳, by Brooks Mendell and Amanda Lang, draws on structured interviews with executives across the industry's wood-consuming operations — surfacing the economic, operational, and policy factors shaping investment decisions, and where action on trade, permitting, and wood-use policy could boost competitiveness.

"Policy decisions directly dictate how fast – or if – capital moves into U.S. manufacturing facilities." — Brooks Mendell, CEO, Forisk

Learn more here:https://forisk.com/wp-content/uploads/Pulp-sector-white-paper-press-release-20260827-FINAL.pdf