World Environmental Conservancy

El Niño 2026: A Global Climate Signal That Demands Attention

July 5th, 2026

Based on the latest updates from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the World Environmental Conservancy (WEC) is closely monitoring the rapid development and intensification of El Niño in 2026.

El Niño is a large-scale ocean–atmosphere phenomenon capable of reshaping weather and climate patterns across the globe. After a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions earlier this year, temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose rapidly. El Niño conditions are now present and are expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026, with current forecasts indicating the development of a strong event.

As El Niño intensifies, its influence on global atmospheric circulation is expected to increase. The coming months may bring a heightened risk of:

• more intense and prolonged heat extremes in several regions;
• major shifts in rainfall patterns, increasing the likelihood of droughts in some areas and heavy precipitation and flooding in others;
• greater stress on forests, agriculture, and water resources;
• increased wildfire risk in regions affected by heat and rainfall deficits;
• impacts on marine ecosystems associated with warmer ocean conditions;
• disruptions to food security, biodiversity, and vulnerable communities.

The effects of El Niño are not uniform and vary considerably from one region to another. However, its development against the background of long-term global warming is particularly concerning. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but today it interacts with an atmosphere and oceans that are already significantly warmer.

According to the latest scientific outlooks, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the coming months and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–2027. This raises concern not only for the months ahead, but also for 2027, as the combined influence of El Niño and continued global warming may further increase the likelihood of exceptional global temperatures and climate extremes.

At the World Environmental Conservancy (WEC), we believe that continuous scientific monitoring, environmental observation, early warning systems, and effective climate communication are essential for anticipating risks and strengthening resilience.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon. The vulnerability of our societies and ecosystems to its impacts is not. Science, preparedness, and environmental protection must guide the decisions we make today.

Image credit: Marc Bruxelle / Shutterstock

Europe’s Heatwave and Accelerating Glacier Melt

July 4th, 2026

The World Environmental Conservancy (WEC) is closely following the extreme heatwave affecting Europe and its impacts on the continent’s mountain and glacial environments.

Exceptionally high temperatures are accelerating the loss of winter snow cover across the European Alps, prematurely exposing glacial ice to direct solar radiation. This process intensifies melting and reduces the surface’s ability to reflect solar energy, contributing to further warming.

The consequences extend far beyond the glaciers themselves, affecting freshwater availability, ecosystems, agriculture, energy production, mountain stability, and global sea-level rise.

Glaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Their rapid retreat provides measurable evidence of the profound transformations occurring within the Earth’s climate system.

At WEC, we emphasize the importance of continuous environmental monitoring, scientific research, climate education, and international cooperation to better understand these changes and strengthen the resilience of societies and ecosystems.

The rapid disappearance of glaciers is a warning we cannot ignore.

World Environmental Conservancy (WEC)
Science, Conservation, and Environmental Awareness for Future Generations



Figure: Rhône Glacier, Switzerland. Photo: © Michael Zech Fotografie / Shutterstock. Used under license.

An extremely encouraging milestone for Brazil and for the planet has just been announced by SOS Mata Atlântica: deforestation in the Atlantic Forest has reached its lowest historical level since monitoring began, confirming an important long-term trend of deceleration. 🌎🌱

According to data from the Atlantic Forest Deforestation Alert System (SAD Mata Atlântica), developed by the SOS Mata Atlântica in partnership with MapBiomas and Arcplan, total deforestation in the biome fell by 28% in 2025, decreasing from 53,303 to 38,385 hectares.

The results are even more remarkable when it comes to mature forests. The Atlas of Atlantic Forest Remnants, produced by SOS Mata Atlântica together with INPE, recorded a 40% reduction in forest suppression — from 14,366 to 8,668 hectares. For the first time in four decades of monitoring, annual deforestation dropped below 10,000 hectares.

Despite being one of the most threatened biomes in the world, the Atlantic Forest continues to play a critical role in climate regulation, water protection, and biodiversity conservation. Today, approximately 24% of the biome’s original forest cover remains, with only 12.4% corresponding to mature forests.

These numbers reflect the positive impact of scientific research, environmental awareness, stronger monitoring policies, and collaborative conservation efforts. Initiatives such as Operation “Mata Atlântica em Pé,” along with remote embargo systems and credit restrictions for illegally deforested areas, have contributed significantly to these advances.

Major challenges still remain. Nearly 96% of deforested areas have been converted to agricultural use, many with indications of illegality. Environmental experts also continue to warn about the risks associated with weakening environmental legislation.
Nevertheless, this achievement proves that conservation works.

It demonstrates that science, environmental education, public policy, and cooperation between institutions, governments, and civil society can truly transform realities and protect the future of our planet.

May this historic progress inspire even greater investments in conservation, ecological restoration, and environmental education throughout Brazil and beyond. The future of coming generations depends on the choices we make today.

Today, the world lost a visionary. World Environmental Conservancy joins the global community in mourning the passing of Ted Turner — pioneering philanthropist, environmental champion, and conservationist. His lifelong dedication to protecting our planet and advancing humanitarian efforts transformed countless lives and ecosystems. His legacy will endure for generations to come.

Science, Ethics, and Climate: Carlos Nobre Appointed as Vatican Scientific Advisor

The recent appointment of Brazilian climatologist Carlos Nobre as a scientific advisor to the Vatican marks a significant moment at the intersection of science, global governance, and environmental ethics. This recognition not only highlights Nobre’s influential work but also reinforces the growing role of scientific expertise in shaping discussions within major global institutions.

Who is Carlos Nobre?
Carlos Nobre is one of the world’s foremost experts on climate change, with a distinguished career dedicated to understanding the Amazon and its critical role in the Earth’s climate system. His research has been central to advancing the concept of the Amazon’s “tipping point” — the threshold beyond which continued deforestation could transform large parts of the rainforest into savanna, with profound global consequences.
Through decades of scientific leadership, Nobre has contributed to international climate assessments and has been a strong advocate for sustainable development pathways that balance environmental protection with economic progress.

What Does This Appointment Mean?
By joining a scientific advisory body connected to the Vatican, Nobre will contribute to high-level reflections on climate change, sustainability, and environmental stewardship. This initiative signals a broader movement toward integrating scientific knowledge into ethical and societal decision-making frameworks.
The appointment also reflects an understanding that addressing complex global challenges requires collaboration across disciplines, sectors, and belief systems.

Science and Faith in Dialogue
Pope Francis has emerged as a prominent voice in environmental advocacy, particularly since the publication of the encyclical Laudato Si’. In this document, he calls for urgent action on climate change and emphasizes the moral responsibility of humanity to care for the planet.
The inclusion of leading scientists like Carlos Nobre in advisory roles demonstrates a commitment to grounding ethical discussions in robust scientific evidence, fostering a meaningful dialogue between science and faith.

Implications for Brazil
Nobre’s appointment carries important symbolic and practical implications for Brazil. It highlights the country’s scientific contributions on the global stage and brings renewed attention to the Amazon as a critical component of the Earth’s climate system.
At a time when climate issues are central to international policy debates, Brazil’s role — both as steward of the Amazon and as a source of scientific expertise — becomes increasingly significant.

A Broader Signal
More than an individual recognition, this appointment sends a clear message: tackling the climate crisis requires interdisciplinary collaboration, international cooperation, and a deep respect for scientific knowledge.

A New Era: Humans as a Force Shaping Earth’s Rotation

We often talk about climate change in terms of rising temperatures, extreme weather, and sea level rise. But there’s another, lesser-known impact that highlights just how deep human influence on our planet has become:

Climate change is slowing down Earth’s rotation.
Recent scientific findings show that the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica is redistributing Earth’s mass toward the equator. This shift alters the planet’s moment of inertia—similar to how a figure skater slows their spin by extending their arms.

What’s happening?
- Earth’s rotation is slowing at a rate of ~1.33 milliseconds per century since 2000
- This is the fastest rate observed in 3.6 million years
- The cause is linked to human-driven global warming

A major shift in planetary forces
Traditionally, the Moon’s gravitational pull (tidal friction) has been the main driver of changes in Earth’s rotation.
But projections suggest that climate change may soon surpass the Moon’s influence—marking a profound shift where human activity becomes a dominant force in a fundamental planetary process.

Why should we care?
While we won’t notice a few milliseconds in daily life, highly precise systems will:
- GPS and satellite navigation
- Global communications
- Financial networks
Even tiny timing errors can cascade into real-world disruptions.

The bigger picture
This is more than a scientific curiosity—it’s a powerful signal that human activity is now influencing Earth at a planetary scale, including its physical dynamics.

References
Adhikari et al. (2016); Mitrovica et al. (2009); NASA Earth Observatory (2023); Stephenson et al. (2016); The Guardian (2024); WCRP (2023)

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Amazon: The Rain Factory That Moves Billions

Scientific communication

A recent study published in the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment estimated the economic value of the rainfall generated by the Amazon Rainforest, highlighting the importance of the forest not only for environmental balance but also for the Brazilian economy.

The research examined the role of the forest in the regional hydrological cycle, particularly through the process of evapotranspiration—when trees release water v***r into the atmosphere. This v***r contributes to cloud formation and precipitation that supply large regions of Brazil, including agricultural areas far beyond the Amazon itself.

Using satellite data and climate models, the researchers calculated the volume of rainfall associated with the presence of the forest and estimated its economic value based on the importance of water for agricultural production. The results indicate that rainfall generated by this natural system may represent around US$20 billion per year in economic benefits.

The authors emphasize that a large portion of Brazilian agriculture depends on natural rainfall, and that reductions in forest cover could significantly affect precipitation patterns. Therefore, the conservation of the Amazon directly contributes to maintaining agricultural productivity and economic stability in climate-dependent sectors.

The study reinforces the idea that the Amazon rainforest functions as a major climatic and hydrological regulator. Thus, beyond its ecological and biodiversity value, the standing forest plays a strategic role as a natural infrastructure essential for the country’s water and economic security.

References
BAKER, J. C. A. et al. The economic value of rainfall generated by the Amazon forest. Communications Earth & Environment, 2026.
NOBRE, A. D. The Future Climate of the Amazon: Scientific Assessment Report. São José dos Campos: National Institute for Space Research (INPE), 2014.
MARENGO, J. A.; SOUZA, C. M. Climate change and impacts in the Amazon. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, 2018.

When It Rains in the Largest Desert on Earth

Atmospheric rivers and moisture transport to Antarctica

Last year, a report by Deutsche Welle highlighted unusual events of moisture transport reaching Antarctica. These episodes are associated with intense atmospheric flows of water v***r known in the scientific literature as Atmospheric Rivers—narrow corridors of concentrated moisture that can transport large amounts of water v***r from the tropics and mid-latitudes toward polar regions.

Under certain atmospheric conditions, these moisture plumes can pe*****te deep into the Antarctic continent, particularly affecting West Antarctica. When this occurs, the transported moisture may result in precipitation events. Traditionally, precipitation over Antarctica falls almost exclusively as snow. However, recent observations indicate that some of these events have produced rain, a phenomenon that remains relatively rare across most of the continent.

Despite its extensive ice cover, Antarctica is often classified as the largest desert on Earth in terms of annual precipitation. On average, the continent receives approximately 160 mm of precipitation per year, with even lower values recorded in the interior plateau. In addition, Antarctic air masses are characterized by extremely low humidity, creating a predominantly cold and dry atmospheric environment.

The occurrence of rainfall in such a setting has raised concerns among scientists. Liquid precipitation can accelerate surface melting, promote the infiltration of water into existing fractures within ice shelves, and contribute to structural weakening through processes such as hydrofracturing. When meltwater accumulates or pe*****tes crevasses, it can increase stress within the ice, potentially leading to ice-shelf destabilization and enhanced ice discharge into the surrounding ocean.

Another important factor is the relatively rapid warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula. Over the past decades, this region has experienced some of the highest rates of temperature increase on the planet. Warmer conditions increase the likelihood that precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers will fall as rain rather than snow, particularly during episodes of strong heat and moisture advection from lower latitudes.

Taken together, these observations suggest a possible intensification of meridional heat and moisture transport toward Antarctica. If such trends continue, they may have important implications for the stability of Antarctic ice shelves, the mass balance of glaciers, and ultimately the global climate system and sea-level rise.

The full article can be accessed on the page: www.worldenvironmentalconservancy.org

The Rain of the Amazon: An Invisible Treasure for the Economy

When we think of the Amazon rainforest, we often picture its rich biodiversity. But beyond wildlife and trees, the Amazon produces something invisible yet crucial for the economy of Brazil and South America: rain. Researchers from Brazil and around the world have studied the value of water generated by the forest — and the findings are remarkable.

How the Amazon Generates Rain
Amazon trees “pull” water from the soil and release it into the atmosphere as v***r through a process called evapotranspiration. This moisture forms clouds that travel thousands of kilometers, bringing rainfall to agricultural regions and cities far from the forest. Scientists call these air currents “flying rivers” because they act like invisible rivers in the sky.
It is estimated that 20–25% of rainfall in the Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil originates from this forest-driven cycle. In other words, the Amazon plays a crucial role in irrigating crops, filling rivers, and sustaining hydropower generation.

The Economic Value of Amazon Rainfall
Water is not just a natural resource; it has a direct economic impact. Some key sectors influenced by Amazon-generated rain include:
Agriculture: Crops like soybeans, corn, and coffee rely on consistent rainfall. A drop in precipitation could lead to billions of dollars in production losses.
Energy: Hydroelectric plants depend on river flow maintained by rainfall. Reduced rainfall leads to less electricity production.
Water Supply: Cities and industries depend on rivers fed by the Amazon. Less rainfall increases the cost of water treatment and distribution.
Some studies suggest that artificially replacing these services — via irrigation or technological interventions — could cost hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

The Risk of Deforestation
Deforestation reduces evapotranspiration, weakening the flying rivers and decreasing rainfall in critical areas. This can cause:
Droughts in agricultural regions
Reduced food production
Lower hydropower generation
Altered continental water cycles
Scientists warn that the Amazon is approaching a tipping point, where loss of forest cover could irreversibly alter rainfall patterns.

Preserving the Amazon: An Economic Imperative
Every tree in the Amazon contributes to water, food, and energy for millions of people. Protecting the forest is not just an environmental responsibility; it is an economic strategy. Recognizing the value of Amazon-generated rain helps policymakers, businesses, and society understand that forest conservation is crucial to ensuring a sustainable future.

The full article can be accessed on the page: www.worldenvironmentalconservancy.org

During the 2022–2023 Antarctic field campaign at the Criosfera 1 module, Brazilian polar science gained unexpected global visibility with the presence of actor Will Smith.

While filming the documentary series Pole to Pole with Will Smith, produced by National Geographic, Smith traveled to the remote interior of Antarctica to witness firsthand the scientific efforts underway at one of Brazil’s most important climate monitoring stations. Beyond observing, he actively engaged with the team during technical maintenance procedures at the automated module.

Working alongside:
• Heitor Evangelista, from the Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)
• Heber Passos, from the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
• Franco Vilella, from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET)
he assisted in the replacement of the station’s wind turbine generator — vital for sustaining operations during the long polar winter — and a temperature sensor responsible for continuous atmospheric monitoring.

Located more than 2,500 km from the Antarctic coast, Criosfera 1 operates autonomously under extreme environmental conditions. The data collected there contribute significantly to understanding climate variability and long-term environmental change.

Will Smith’s participation helped bring significant international visibility to Brazilian science in Antarctica and to the Brazilian Antarctic Program (PROANTAR).

Photo: personal archive of Heber Passos.