Capitol Whip

🚨 Breaking Michele Tafoya and Peggy Flanagan TIED in the Minnesota Senate election.

Minnesota - 2026 Senate
🟥Michele Tafoya 42%
🟦Peggy Flanagan 42%

Lieutenant Governor Flanagan’s association to Governor Walz and the allegations of taxpayer fraud for welfare abuse is casting a large shadow on her candidacy. Furthermore, she still has to unite the Democrats following a competitive primary campaign against Representative Angie Craig, whereas Michele Tofoya is SURGING with the united Republican Party behind her.

In a state that voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 by 4 points, this remains Flanagan’s race to lose.

SurveyUSA | September 17, 2026 | 654 LV

2028 Presidential Polling Averages (Sept. 20)
Vance vs. the field:
🟦 Buttigieg 48.5% (+4.6)
🟥 Vance 43.9%
——
🟦 Ossoff 48.5% (+4.4)
🟥 Vance 44.1%
——
🟦 Harris 48.3% (+3.9)
🟥 Vance 44.4%
——
🟦 Newsom 45.5% (+1.9)
🟥 Vance 43.6%
——
🟥 Vance 44.9% (+2.9)
🟦 AOC 42.0%
Source:
Who do you think has the best shot? 👇

🚨LANDSLIDE VICTORY: Tommy Tuberville OVERWHELMINGLY leads Doug Jones in the odds of winning the Alabama governor’s race.

Alabama - 2026 Governor (odds)
🟥Tommy Tuberville 98.5%
🟦Doug Jones 1.5%

Projected Margin: 🟥R+24.8

In a rematch, Senator Tuberville once again faces off against former Senator Jones. Jones is the most recent elected statewide Democrat after winning a special election for the Senate in 2017. However, Tuberville defeated Jones in 2020 by over 20 points and will likely do the same come November.

Georgia U.S. Senate Fundraising — FEC

🔵 Jon Ossoff
$98.0M ($42.6M Cash on Hand)

🔴 Mike Collins
$7.4M ($2.1M Cash on Hand)

🚨 BREAKING: A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent shot and wounded a person during an operation in North Austin on Sunday, according to state and local officials.

The incident happened in the 7000 block of West Anderson Lane near U.S. 183.

Emergency responders transported the injured individual to a local hospital. The exact circumstances leading up to the shooting and the current condition of the person remain under investigation. We are following this developing story for updates.

TEXAS STATEWIDE ELECTION ODDS:

Senate:
🟦 James Talarico: 60%

Update: The battle lines are drawn as the race between Byron Donalds and David Jolly heats up in a dead heat.
With the candidates clashing over home insurance overhauls and AI data centers, voters want answers. Will we see these two go head-to-head on the debate stage?

CBS News 2026 Senate Ratings

Alaska: 🔴 Lean R
Iowa: 🔴 Lean R
Maine: 🟡 Tossup
Michigan: 🟡 Tossup
Ohio: 🟡 Tossup
Texas: 🟡 Tossup
Georgia: 🔵 Lean D
North Carolina: 🔵 Lean D
New Hampshire: 🔵 Lean D

New 2026 Inside Elections Senate Ratings

🔴 Republicans: 50
🔵 Democrats: 46
🟡 Tossup: 4

Battleground States:
Texas: 🔴 Lean R
New Hampshire: 🟡 Tossup
Michigan: 🟡 Tossup
Ohio: 🟡 Tossup
Maine: 🟡 Tossup
Georgia: 🔵 Tilt D

🚨Kansas U.S. Senate Poll🚨

🔵 Adam Hamilton - 45%

🔴 Roger Marshall (Inc) - 43%

Emerson
750 Likely Voters
9/15-9/16