Allyson Rae

West Texas monsoon season. Photo by Logan Lewis,
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The Milky Way AND a Perseid meteor out on Captiva! Captured by Josh Robinson

We’re still watching two areas of interest in the tropics. A tropical depression may form, but chances have gone down a bit since yesterday thanks to the increasingly hostile environment ahead.

If anything does develop, it would likely be short-lived, with wind shear and other unfavorable conditions expected to weaken the system as it approaches the eastern Caribbean.

So, once again, we’re just keeping tabs on these areas for now. No reason for concern at this time, but we’ll keep you posted if anything changes!

As we watch the two tropical waves moving westward off the coast of Africa, there are still plenty of obstacles that could limit their development as they approach the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean.

Dry air and Saharan dust, along with wind shear, could make it difficult for either system to maintain organization, even if they form into our next named system (Dolly). For now, those environmental factors are working in our favor. 🌴

It’s still early, and conditions can change as these waves move west. We’ll keep watching! 👀🌀

Tropical Storm Cristobal has officially formed over the central Atlantic, but it poses no threat to the U.S. and is expected to remain well away from the continental U.S.

Our attention remains on a couple of tropical waves farther east in the Atlantic that could eventually move westward in our general direction. Dolly is the next name on the list.

For now, overall concern remains low. Increasing wind shear in the eastern Caribbean could disrupt one of these systems, while another possible scenario is a turn to the north before reaching the U.S.

Things can change, so we’ll continue watching the tropics closely. Stay tuned! 🌴🌀

🌀 The disturbance we’ve been tracking is now Invest 92L!

So, what does that actually mean? Not much has changed with the forecast. The designation simply means the National Hurricane Center is taking a closer look at the system and can now more closely monitor its organization, track, and potential for development.

And yes… we get the spaghetti models! 🍝 😂

Those models can help us better understand the range of possible tracks, but remember: spaghetti plots are not a forecast and the individual lines are not equally likely.

As for the overall threat: concern remains LOW.

The system is expected to become a depression or Cristobal by the end of the week, but its environment remains challenging. Even if it takes a more westerly track, strong wind shear across the eastern Caribbean is expected to keep the system weak and limit its ability to organize.

We’ll keep watching it and update you if the forecast changes. 👀🌴

Cool photos by Josh Robinson! Thanks for sharing!

It is increasingly likely that Cristobal will form by the end of the work week or early this weekend.

The overall concern for the U.S. remains low at this time. The system will likely either continue westward and encounter increasing wind shear, which would hinder development, or curve northward and remain over the open Atlantic, staying well away from the U.S.

We’ll continue to watch it closely and keep you updated if anything changes!

Lightning from last night captured by Jorgen Asteberg. ⚡️⚡️⚡️

Weather delay for Hurricane Week! Lightning is close by our live location and we are next to the tallest object in Cape Coral- the new flag! 🇺🇸We are headed inside.