Chambers Financial Group

Yesterday, I shared the overall US labor force participation rate, which has fallen since 2000. It showed a visible decline which seems concerning.

But what if we look at prime age Americans, people ages 25 to 54? Looks quite different to me.

My take is prime age participation looks much better and shows improvement since Great Recession and also post COVID.

My back of the envelope calculation shows a more positive trend.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics FRED

Are fewer Americans choosing to work? This would seem concerning. What happened to the American work ethic? Is there some kind of cultural shift that could hurt US productivity?

Labor force participation has been going down for some time (as the chart shows). But there’s a big "demographics are destiny" thing going on here. America is getting older, and baby boomers are retiring.

Aging population is an issue, but retiring is normal and different from not wanting to work. This aging demographic trend, according to the St Louis Fed, has been a major factor pushing the overall participation rate down.

Tomorrow I'll post the same chart for people ages 25 to 54. Interesting because it looks quite different.

St. Louis Fed paper on this idea:
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-behind-sharp-drop-labor-force-participation

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRED

To plan for the future doesn't mean we have to be able to predict the future.

We can't predict it (no crystal ball).

Markets, the economy, life, they're going to surprise us.

That's something we can plan on!



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There's always something to worry about, and TBH, I'm an expert at worrying.

Recessions, wars, etc. Most times it's a long list (sigh).

I like to say the world is a house of cards.

A financial plan can help. If we're going to worry about the future, why not make it constructive?

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Question: why are so many so unhappy w/ so many upsides in this economy?🤔 Consumer sentiment measures are super negative.

I figured it was because wages hadn't kept up with COVID era inflation.

When I charted wages vs. inflation on FRED, not what I expected. I didn't think anything could keep up w/ COVID era inflation, but wages have mostly kept up.

Doesn't mean many people aren't struggling, I realize that.

Chart: BLS via FRED

Jobless claims just came in at ~197k, looks like another really good report. A bit better than expected and about as low as it's been in decades. 4 weekk average down to ~202k.

Seems another good indication of the health of the US economy.

Source: U.S. Department of Laborhttps://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA

There's nervousness out there about the market at the moment. Based on some client conversations I've been having.

A sense, I think, that people are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

However, in this interview, Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says investors shouldn't be so anxious.

That's okay w/ me, I'm taking a breath.

He expects double digit S&P 500 earnings growth as we head into the next earnings season.

That's important because, right or wrong, earnings are what the stock market is all about.

Goldman's Snider Expects Double-Digit S&P Earnings Growth Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist Ben Snider says investors should not be anxious. He expects S&P 500 companies to report double-digit earnings growth starting next week. He also talks about the AI trade on "Bloomberg Open Interest."

Sharp market declines are common and normal.

Historically, the S&P 500 has a 10%+ correction about once a year.

Many of these declines happened in years when the market finished up.

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/six-tips

6 tips to manage market volatility - Fidelity When the markets get volatile, it may pay to have a plan for your investments.

Expect Some Bumps During Midterm Election Year:

The S&P 500 had an average maximum drawdown of ~17% (over the past 10 midterm cycles).

But there's light at the end of the midterm tunnel. One year after those lows, the market was up an average of ~28%.

So expect volatility, but perspective can help.

Source: Hartford Funds
https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/when-stocks-stumble-in-midterm-years-what-comes-next.html

When Stocks Stumble in Midterm Years, What Comes Next? Although stocks often drop in midterm election years, they’ve historically rebounded sharply off the lows.

I think the most difficult period I've seen in 29 years was post COVID.

Massive inflation, along with a bad market.

Prices up 9%, highest level in 40 years, and it went there fast.

Financial planning deals with the real world. A world that has a habit of occasionally becoming chaotic.

Something we can plan on.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm

Consumer prices up 9.1 percent over the year ended June 2022, largest increase in 40 years : The Economics Daily : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The .gov means it's official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site.