The Recombobulation Area

Getting down to crunch time, let’s go

NEW: The latest episode of the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat is HERE!

On David Crowley's proposal to protect abortion rights, Republicans’ school funding shell game, Tom Tiffany’s radical tax ideas, more.

With Pat Kreitlow UpNorth Dr. Kristin Lyerly and special guest Dr. Christopher Ford!

Link in comments + find the podcast on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts in The Recombobulation Area feed.

For races up and down the ticket in Wisconsin, you hear the same story from people. Democrats are in position to make gains. The national and state environment has soured on Trump. Voters are pi**ed about the economy and the cost of living.

But Republicans have every fundraising advantage right now, and it is overwhelmingly coming from just three billionaires. Dick and Liz Uihlein and Diane Hendricks are funding not just >90% of Tom Tiffany's campaign, but the vast majority of funding for legislative campaign committees, too.

So, the state of the race at the moment in Wisconsin really boils down to the billionaire money vs. the national environment and the on-the-ground reality.

More on this in my latest column (link in comments)

Donald Trump's approval rating in Wisconsin is at his lowest of any of his two terms.

And it's not just that only 38% approve and 60% disapprove of the job he's doing. His “strongly approve” number is at only 16% — also the lowest of his two terms in office. That “strongly approve” number was at 38% following his return to office in 2025, and has dropped precipitously since then. His “strongly disapprove” number is also the highest of his two terms at 52%.

Overwhelming majorities (65%) say that his policies have increased inflation. On the Iran War, 73% of voters say it has not been worth the cost, and 83% say it has not achieved its goals. Almost two-thirds of voters say tariffs are hurting Wisconsin farmers, and 70% of voters are opposed to tariffs on imported goods from Canada. His “Trump Dividend” proposal is opposed by 70% of voters. There is not much going well for the president right now.

NEW: Here at The Recombobulation Area, we pay close attention not just to the top-of-the-ticket race like the one for governor, but what's happening downballot, too. And this year's race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is unlike any we've seen in a long time. Democrats have their first realistic chance at flipping the legislature in 16 years. Can they seize this opportunity?

Here's our MEGA-PREVIEW of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature (all 116 of them!) linked here in one place.

Let's recombobulate:

2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Legislature Could Democrats win a trifecta in 2026? Find our preview of all 17 races in the Senate and all 99 races in the Assembly here.

Democrats have a major opportunity to flip a seat in District 21. Republican incumbent Jessie Rodriguez (who outran Trump by nearly 7%) is not seeking re-election.

Longtime Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz (D) faces Dylan Pfaffenbach (R), who started a Turning Point USA chapter at Carroll U.

Did you know you can watch all of our podcasts on YouTube? It's true!

Here's our latest, with Congressman Mark Pocan:

www.youtube.com

ICYMI: CONGRESSMAN MARK POCAN joined The Recombobulation Area podcast!

We talked about the 1st CD ("absolutely in play"), Derrick Van Orden ("embarrassing in every way"), money in politics, races up and down the ballot, more.

Let's recombobulate:

Mark on the Midterms: Congressman Pocan talks flipping the House, Derrick Van Orden’s antics, Bryan Steil’s vulnerability, a Wisconsin trifecta, much more Mark Pocan thinks the 1st District is very much in play for Democrats, and could be won by Mitchell Berman. Plus: Van Orden’s absurdity and the 3rd District race, key downballot contests, more.

The Recombobulation Area Rating for the 17 districts on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Senate:

Safe D: 4
Likely D: 0
Lean D: 2
Toss Up: 2
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 1
Safe R: 8

With the 10 DEM / 6 GOP not on the ballot this year, that adds up to:

GOP: 15
DEM: 16
TOSS UP: 2