The Current Atlas

🇺🇸 TEXAS SENATE 2026: KALSHI MARKET SHOWS TALARICO AT 57%

The latest Kalshi market snapshot shown in the graphic puts:

🔵 James Talarico (D): 57%
🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 43%

The graphic also shows a major one-month shift:

📈 Talarico: +8 points
📉 Paxton: −8 points

These are prediction-market prices, not polling percentages. Kalshi’s live Texas Senate market currently shows the race in the same general range, with Talarico and Paxton separated by roughly the mid-single digits.

Recent polling is also showing a very competitive race. A new Emerson College Texas poll has the candidates essentially tied, while the Texas Tribune reported on Sept. 17 that Talarico has been consistently leading in several recent surveys.

So the important distinction is: Kalshi has moved toward Talarico, while actual voter polling remains much tighter than a 57–43 market price.

🇺🇸 INSIDERADVANTAGE: THREE KEY SENATE RACES SHOW DEMOCRATIC LEADS

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted September 16–17 among likely voters shows Democratic candidates leading in Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

🔵 MICHIGAN
Abdul El-Sayed — 47%
Mike Rogers — 45%
➡️ El-Sayed +2

🔵 NEW HAMPSHIRE
Chris Pappas — 48%
John Sununu — 40%
➡️ Pappas +8

🔵 NORTH CAROLINA
Roy Cooper — 48%
Michael Whatley — 43%
➡️ Cooper +5

Michigan remains especially close: two other recent polls had El-Sayed at 48%–45% and 48%–46%, respectively.

New Hampshire has shown more variation. The latest InsiderAdvantage survey gives Pappas an 8-point edge, while an August UNH poll had Sununu ahead 45%–43%, illustrating the movement across surveys.

North Carolina has also produced a wide range of results, with recent surveys showing Cooper ahead by margins ranging from several points to double digits.

With the 2026 midterms approaching, these three races remain important pieces of the broader Senate landscape.

🇺🇸 IDAHO SENATE 2026: NEW POLL SHOWS ACHILLES AHEAD OF RISCH

A new Advanced Targeting Research survey conducted September 13–16 shows independent candidate Todd Achilles leading Republican incumbent Jim Risch in the Idaho Senate race.

In the head-to-head matchup shown in the graphic:

🔵 Todd Achilles — 50.1%
🔴 Jim Risch — 38.5%
➡️ Achilles +11.6

With the full field included, the survey reports:

🔵 Todd Achilles — 45.5%
🔴 Jim Risch — 39.4%
⚪ Matt Loesby — 5%

The latest poll listing from Political Betting also reports the Advanced Targeting Research survey at Achilles 45.5%, Risch 39.4%, with a sample of 700 registered voters and a ±3.7-point margin of error.

This is a striking result for Idaho, where Risch has held the Senate seat since 2009 and the state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974. Achilles is running as an independent after the Democratic nominee, David Roth, ended his campaign.

However, other polling has been considerably different. Earlier August surveys ranged from Risch leads to a narrow Achilles advantage, while Call the Map’s latest eligible polling average before this new survey remained R+23.1.

So this new survey represents a major departure from the earlier public polling, making additional independent polling particularly important for assessing whether the result reflects a broader shift.

Latest ATR snapshot: Achilles 45.5% 🔵 | Risch 39.4% 🔴 | Loesby 5%

🇺🇸 OHIO SENATE 2026: BROWN LEADS HUSTED BY 3.9 POINTS IN NEW TRAFALGAR POLL

A new Trafalgar Group poll, conducted September 14–16 among likely voters, shows Democrat Sherrod Brown at 45.4% and Republican incumbent Jon Husted at 41.5% — a 3.9-point Brown lead.

The result is broadly consistent with the recent Ohio polling picture. The latest InsiderAdvantage survey had Brown ahead 47.3%–41.9%, while BGSU/YouGov found Brown ahead 48%–45%.

Current polling averages also put Brown ahead: RCP has Brown +3.2, while Call the Map’s weighted average is D+4.1.

The race remains important because Ohio is one of the closely watched Senate contests of 2026. Reuters recently described the Brown–Husted matchup as a competitive race, noting that recent polls have generally shown Brown ahead by several points.

Latest snapshot: Brown 45.4% 🔵 | Husted 41.5% 🔴 | Brown +3.9

🇺🇸 MAINE SENATE: NEW POLL SHOWS A VIRTUAL TIE

The latest Quantus Insights poll, conducted September 14–15 among 621 likely voters, has Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 47.1% and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson at 46.4% — just Collins +0.7.

When voters leaning toward a candidate are included, the race becomes even tighter: Collins 47.6% vs. Jackson 47.4% — only 0.2 points apart. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.3 points, so the difference is well within the survey’s margin of error.

The result is notable because several recent surveys had Jackson ahead, including CNN/SSRS at 48–45 and YouGov at 48–44. Rasmussen’s September 10 poll had Jackson narrowly ahead 46–45.

Polling averages still show a very close contest. PollingSource’s latest 30-day average has Jackson 47.3% and Collins 45.5%, while Call the Map’s adjusted aggregate is Jackson +2.4.

Bottom line: this Quantus survey is a statistical dead heat, adding another close data point to one of the most closely watched Senate races of 2026.

🇺🇸 TEXAS SENATE 2026: NEW SIENA POLL HAS TALARICO +6

A new ReconMR/Siena poll of 614 likely voters conducted September 8–11 shows:

🔵 James Talarico (D): 49%
🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 43%
➡️ Talarico +6

The poll has 4% undecided, 3% supporting another candidate, and a ±4.3-point margin of error.

This represents movement from the same poll series. In July, Talarico led Paxton 47%–43%; the June survey was tied at 46%–46%.

The broader polling picture is also competitive. The current 270toWin average of five recent polls has Talarico 46.6% to Paxton 43.8%, while RealClearPolling’s average is around Talarico +2.9.

One important caveat: the +6 result is one poll, not a forecast. Several recent surveys have shown much smaller margins, including Mason-Dixon at 46%–43% and InsiderAdvantage at 47%–46%.

The latest Siena snapshot therefore shows Talarico with a 49%–43% lead, while the wider polling average remains considerably tighter.

🇺🇸 IOWA SENATE: NEW POLL SHOWS HINSON AHEAD BY 4

A new co/efficient poll shown in the graphic has Republican Ashley Hinson at 46% and Democrat Josh Turek at 42%, with 2% for other candidates. The survey interviewed 831 likely voters from September 14–16.

That is a 4-point Hinson lead in this particular survey.

The result comes amid a very fluid Iowa Senate race. Recent polling has produced results in both directions: Emerson had Hinson ahead 50%–45%, while YouGov had Turek ahead 44%–43% among registered voters.

The polling averages also show why individual surveys should be read cautiously. FiftyPlusOne’s September 16 average has Turek 45.8% to Hinson 44.8%, while 270toWin’s listed average of five recent polls has Hinson 46.2% to Turek 44.2%.

So the latest picture is not a consistent one-sided polling trend. Different pollsters are producing narrow margins on both sides, with several surveys falling within a few points of each other.

Iowa remains a closely measured Senate contest, with the latest co/efficient survey putting Hinson ahead 46%–42%.

🇺🇸 NEBRASKA SENATE: RICKETTS LEADS OSBORN 52%–48% IN NEW WEDGEWOOD POLL

A new Wedgewood survey dated September 16 shows incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 52%, compared with independent challenger Dan Osborn at 48% among likely voters.

🔴 Pete Ricketts (R): 52%
🟡 Dan Osborn (I): 48%
📊 Ricketts +4

The result is notable because it goes against the most recent publicly listed SurveyUSA poll, conducted September 8–13, which found Osborn 46% to Ricketts 42%, giving Osborn a four-point lead. That survey had a ±6.4-point margin of error.

The broader polling picture is therefore extremely tight. Recent polling averages are around 46% Osborn to 45–46% Ricketts, depending on the model and methodology.

There is also an interesting difference between polling and forecasting/market indicators. Some public models still show the race close, while prediction-market pricing has continued to give Ricketts a substantially higher implied chance of winning.

And the race is attracting fresh Republican spending: a GOP-aligned super PAC recently announced a $1.4 million advertising buy supporting Ricketts.

The takeaway: Nebraska is producing one of the tightest Senate polling pictures of 2026. The latest Wedgewood result gives Ricketts a four-point edge, while other recent surveys have shown Osborn ahead by a similar margin.

🇺🇸 SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE: GRAHAM LEADS ANDREWS BY 5

A new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted September 14 among 1,006 likely voters shows Republican Darline Graham at 48% and Democrat Annie Andrews at 43%, with 9% undecided.

🔴 Darline Graham (R): 48%
🔵 Annie Andrews (D): 43%
⚪ Not sure: 9%
📊 Graham +5

The poll comes after a series of much closer surveys. InsiderAdvantage’s September 8–9 poll had Graham at 45.1% and Andrews at 43.2%, while an Impact Research poll in August found the race tied 41%–41%.

The broader polling picture remains relatively competitive: Call the Map’s September 14 polling aggregate had Graham ahead by about 4.9 points, while Decision Desk HQ’s September 15 forecast projected a 7-point Republican margin.

So this Rasmussen survey shows a wider Republican lead than the most recent InsiderAdvantage poll, but the race has produced significantly different results depending on the pollster and methodology.

🇺🇸 IOWA GOVERNOR: SAND LEADS IN NEW CYGNAL POLL

A new Cygnal poll conducted September 9–11 shows a competitive race for Iowa governor:

🔵 Rob Sand (D): 47.8%
🔴 Zach Lahn (R): 44.4%
📊 Sand +3.4

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters and was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation, a conservative organization, making the result notable given the sponsor’s partisan orientation.

The broader polling picture also shows Sand ahead. The latest YouGov poll had Sand at 51% to Lahn’s 40%, while Emerson found 49%–46%. Call the Map’s polling aggregate currently has Sand ahead by about 5.5 points.

So the Cygnal result is much closer than the latest YouGov survey, but it still places Sand in front.

With Iowa having a strong Republican recent history, the governor’s race is drawing attention as one of the more closely watched statewide contests of 2026. 🇺🇸