Vertex Routes Kommerce LLC

Rates are cooling. The market isn't.

Spot linehaul rates minus fuel slipped again this week across all three equipment types, a fourth straight decline for dry van and flatbed and a fifth for re**er.

Every one of them still sits 35% to 40% above last August, and truck posts are down roughly 30% year over year. Capacity is holding this floor, not freight demand.

At the same time, West Coast imports are running hot as shippers get ahead of tariff changes. That pulls peak season forward and leaves a hole in Q4.

If you're planning fall capacity around a normal peak, you may be planning for the wrong month.

When does your peak season actually start this year?

Did you know that contract rates for dry van and refrigerated freight just posted their largest June-to-July increases on record?

The July 2026 DAT Freight & Analytics Truckload Volume Index highlights how capacity is wielding a huge influence on pricing, even as freight volumes have declined following seasonal activity in June.

Full data here - https://bit.ly/4hNO03n

Produce volumes are down 18% in the Central Valley. So why are re**er rates up 32%?

The answer is capacity, not freight. Fresno is losing trucks faster than it's losing loads, and the next two weeks could tighten things further.

Central Valley produce volumes down roughly 18% Fresno outbound re**er spot rates up about 32% year over year.

Brake Safety Week runs August 23 to 29, pulling more trucks off the road.

California's enforcement of non-domiciled CDL and English-language requirements is thinning capacity further.

You don't need volumes to rise for rates to rise. You just need capacity to fall faster, and that's exactly what's happening here.

Re**er operators, Fresno is the market to watch this
**erMarket