Primrose Investment Group - Stifel

News reports suggest that President Trump is considering proposals to cut the capital gains tax. The idea that the Treasury Department can act independently to change the rules for the capital gains tax has been floated before, but doubt that it has the authority to act. Absent administrative action, Congress would need to change the law and that is unlikely to occur in 2026. In this note, Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist reviews some of the options and describes the significant hurdles that each proposal would face.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/axuaPK

In this Potomac Perspective, Brian Gardner discusses what a Democratic win could mean for certain sectors and how policy may, or may not, change. Following that, they explain why they think a Democratic takeover of the House is likely, but by a smaller margin than has occurred in past elections. They also present the reasons why they think that Republicans are currently favored to win the Senate.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aMtpap

In addition to working on another reconciliation bill and a stopgap funding bill for the fall, Congress is working on a cryptocurrency bill (yes, still!) and a community bank deregulatory bill. Despite some positive headlines about both bills, there are reasons to be skeptical about their prospects. Also, data centers and their impact on energy costs are getting more attention in the House. We are uncertain if legislation will pass in 2026, but the issue will stick around.

Read more in today's Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist:
https://livesocial.seismic.com/aJ5sAU

New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a one-year moratorium on the construction of new "hyperscale" data centers. New York is the first state to impose such a ban, and it raises questions about whether other states will follow and what steps the federal government might take. In our view, state actions, like New York's, are more likely than federal ones, even if Democrats sweep the midterm elections.

Click here to read more in Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aYJ44w

Congress is back in session this week and the Senate will try, yet again, to strike a deal on a cryptocurrency bill. Congressional leaders will also try to make progress on a series of budget-related bills. Several congressional hearings relevant to the markets, especially for bank and financials investors, are scheduled to take place this week. The heads of the Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will both testify before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees.

Click here to read more in Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist: https://livesocial.seismic.com/auTFT3

After an unsettled start to the year, the second quarter saw markets roar back – even as a new Federal Reserve chair, firmer inflation, and a fragile Middle East de-escalation reshaped the path for growth, rates, and returns. In this edition of Quarterly Market Perspectives, we examine how these forces are shaping our second-half outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.

Read the full piece here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aW0WOD

The Supreme Court allowed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain in her position and, by extension, upheld central bank independence. However, the Court's decision focused on the Fed's role in setting monetary policy and may have left the door open for a president to remove a governor for reasons related to regulatory policy. The markets may not care about this distinction now, but the issue could resurface in the future.

Read the full report here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aQ0qaV

Trump's cancellation of the housing bill signing ceremony raises questions about constitutional options. Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner discusses the potential courses of action and reiterates his expectation that the legislation will become law this year, even if the timing is uncertain. The prospects for the CLARITY Act have slipped as Senators failed to reach a breakthrough on the bill before a key date (the July 4th recess).

Read more in the full newsletter:https://www.stifel.com/newsletters/adgraphics/InSight/Potomac-Perspectives/2026/PP_062626.pdf

A bicameral agreement on a housing bill seems to lean towards the House's version of the legislation. This is a positive for the build-to-rent sector. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act also includes regulatory relief for the manufactured housing industry and some modest changes to community bank regulation. Despite the rhetoric, the bill is unlikely to have a material impact on housing prices in the near-term.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/acDMkm

Congress passed a reconciliation bill to fund immigration enforcement agencies, setting the stage for potential movement on economic policy bills such as housing and crypto legislation. Brian Gardner outlines what's next and the hurdles facing these proposals, along with a possible markup of artificial intelligence legislation, the SEC's next steps on equity market structure, and the implications of a recent update on the Social Security trust fund.

Read about this and more in Potomac Perspective: https://livesocial.seismic.com/a7oVWo