The Ripon Society

Since 1934, the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats and 3.4 Senate seats at the midterms. History isn't kind to the party in power — and 2026 looks more "typical" than "exception." Andrew Busch breaks down the curse — and what could break it — in the new Ripon Forum:

One of the most consistent patterns in American politics is the tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in Congress in the midterm elections.

This pattern is most pronounced in the House of Representatives, where the president’s party has lost ground in all but three midterm elections since 1894. There are more frequent exceptions in the Senate, but even there the president’s party has lost seats about two-thirds of the time. Whatever solace presidential parties may take from the more mixed results in Senate races is given back when reviewing elections for state governors: only a dozen states hold their gubernatorial elections in presidential years. The rest are scheduled with the congressional midterms or (in a handful of cases) odd-year state elections. The pattern there mimics the congressional pattern.

There is a simple reason House results are more consistently negative toward the president’s party than Senate results. Every House district holds an election in every midterm year (as well as in every presidential election year), but because of the Senate’s staggered six-year terms, only one third of the Senate, hailing from two-thirds of the states, are up for election at any one time. Depending on which states are holding elections, the Senate can find itself largely insulated against negative national trends against the president in a way the House cannot. In 2018, Donald Trump’s Republicans lost 41 seats and their majority in the House, but actually gained two seats in the Senate because they enjoyed a “good map.”

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/the-midterm-curse-and-the-balance-of-power-in-washington/

A podcast beats a 30-sec ad. A streamer beats an editorial board.
Targeted Victory’s Matt Gorman breaks down why campaigns don't control the gatekeepers anymore — and why attention is the real 2026 battleground:

Politics used to interrupt your television show.
Now it is the television show.

I’ve spent the better part of two decades in communications — presidential campaigns, congressional races, corporate boardrooms, cable news studios, and, for a brief and unforgettable chapter, inside one of the world’s largest social media platforms. Across each stop, I’ve watched one truth become impossible to ignore.

The communications playbook has been rewritten.

Not because television disappeared. It hasn’t.

Not because newspapers stopped mattering. They still do.

But because campaigns no longer decide where voters get their information — or who they trust to deliver it.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/attention-is-the-new-battleground/

To June 2020, when Sen. Bill Cassidy joined a virtual Ripon Society meeting during one of the most turbulent stretches in recent memory — economic turmoil and nationwide unrest converging all at once:

“When you read President Lincoln, our first Republican President, it is amazing the intellect which he brought forth in this regard. Why do I go into that? Because if there was ever a time for a thoughtful response to the challenges facing our country, it is now. We have to work together and apply our conservative principles — our value of life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness — to the problems of today.”

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/2020/06/if-there-was-ever-a-time-for-a-thoughtful-response-to-the-challenges-facing-our-country-it-is-now/

Independents now outnumber Democrats in 5 of 7 key battleground states. Whether Dems get their Blue Wave in November depends almost entirely on that margin.

The Winston Group’s David Winston & Myra Miller lay out the landscape for the GOP heading into the fall in the latest Ripon Forum:

Whether Democrats get their Blue Wave will largely depend on the margin among independents. In 2018, Democrats won independents by +12D, producing the Blue Wave. In 2022, Republicans had their best party ID advantage in the history of exit polling (+3), but the Red Wave was blunted by GOP underperformance among independents (+2D).

As we saw in last November’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, there are signs that Democrats could be recreating the 2020 Biden coalition. In Virginia, independents made up 33 percent of the electorate. Abigail Spanberger won independents by 19 points, the same margin as Biden’s in 2020 and a reversal of Glenn Youngkin’s 9-point margin in 2021. In New Jersey, Sherrill carried independents by 13 points (56-43).

While there are factors that work in Democrats’ favor, one of the biggest obstacles to a Blue Wave is that the image of Congressional Democrats is negative overall (38-56 favorable-unfavorable in our June 2026 survey for Winning the Issues) and among independents (30-62). The image of Congressional Republicans is 37-58 favorable-unfavorable, on par with that of Democrats (38-56); among independents, the Republican image is 25-68. Among independents, 42 percent have an unfavorable view of both Republicans and Democrats, meaning both parties will be competing for a group that has a negative image of both.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/the-political-landscape-for-republicans-heading-into-the-fall/

TEDDY TWEET OF THE WEEK

“I ask you to help strike the note that shall unite our people. As a people we must be united. If we are not united we shall slip into the gulf of measureless disaster.”

Theodore Roosevelt
Before Knights of Columbus, New York City
October 12, 1915

25 years after 9/11, the line of presidential succession is still a ticking time bomb. Guilford College President Jean Parvin Bordewich explains why Congress has changed it by statute 3 times before — and why it's time for a 4th in the latest Ripon Forum:

In the aftermath of the horrific events of Sept. 11, 2001, after the airplanes commandeered by terrorists obliterated the World Trade Center and struck the Pentagon, frightening questions lingered: What if the fourth (and possibly fifth) plane had hit their targets in the capital? Would they have wiped out Congress and possibly the White House and president, too? Could the federal government have responded to such a national crisis? Who would quickly fill the places of the dead officials?

Since 9/11, additional threats have emerged: the anthrax mailings, violence against politicians of both parties, the COVID pandemic, and the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol that threatened the Vice President, as well as the Speaker and Senate president pro tempore and other members of Congress. These events proved that no disaster is now unthinkable.

Following the existing rules for succession could easily inflame political discord at the worst possible time, turning a catastrophe into an enduring national nightmare. Imagine the political uproar if Speaker Nancy Pelosi succeeded President Donald Trump, or Speaker Mike Johnson replaced President Joe Biden should both President and Vice President have been killed.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/keep-the-government-running/

We will never forget - 9/11/01

25 years ago, Americans set aside politics, faith, and background to stand together as one nation. In the latest Ripon Forum, President and CEO of the George W. Bush Presidential Center Shilo Brooks reflects on the unity that followed 9/11 — and why it shouldn't take tragedy to remind us we're neighbors:

Twenty-five years after the horrific events of September 11, 2001, united our country in strength and sorrow, Americans continue to join hands on this day as we remember the thousands who lost their lives in the deadliest terrorist attacks on U.S. soil in our history.
In his address to the nation that evening, President George W. Bush stated that “terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundation of America.” That foundation is still strong today, even amid polarization in our nation and our world.

In the aftermath of 9/11, Americans overwhelmingly supported their government. The president’s post-9/11 approval rating rose to 92 percent just months after a divided election. About 60 percent of U.S. adults expressed trust in the federal government – a level not reached in the previous three decades or in the two decades since, according to Pew Research from that October. That month, 79 percent of U.S. adults said they had displayed an American flag and most said they often felt patriotic because of the attacks.

The unity of our nation after 9/11 showed what is best in the American spirit, and reminded us what it means to embrace each other as fellow Americans. Compassion, courage, goodwill, justice, and principled leadership brought us together without concern for race, religion, or political philosophy. These are the same American ideals that bind our nation today. 9/11 reminds us that America is a nation of civic purpose and virtue of character – and that it shouldn’t take a tragedy to turn neighbors into friends.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/25-years-after-9-11-the-memory-of-national-unity-still-resonates-today/

A Meeting to Remember: 25 years ago tomorrow, 10 House members joined Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld for breakfast at the Pentagon. Their conversation on military readiness was interrupted by news of a plane hitting the World Trade Center. This is their story of that morning — told exclusively to The Ripon Forum on the 20th anniversary of 9/11 in 2021:

"Perhaps the most memorable moment of the meeting for those still in the room occurred toward the end. At least some of the House members had already left to go back to Capitol Hill. Those who remained remembered an aide entering the room and giving Rumsfeld some startling news.

“'The Secretary’s military aide handed him a note,' Cox stated. 'So we watched him read it, and then he politely but abruptly informed us of what had happened. A plane had crashed into the World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan.'"

READ MORE HERE: https://riponsociety.org/article/a-meeting-to-remember/

A State Department officer during the Iraq surge, an architect of the Baghdad Security Plan, and now a congressman — Congressman Michael Baumgartner reflects on how his year in Baghdad shaped his life, and a generation, on the 25th anniversary of 9/11:

September 11, 2001, set me on the path to a career in public service and foreign affairs. The Global War on Terror shaped an entire generation of Americans, including me, and inspired me to dedicate my career to serving our country. In the years that followed, I served as a diplomat in Iraq and a civilian adviser in Afghanistan, working alongside courageous American service members and our allies in some of the world’s most challenging environments. My service in the Afghanistan also changed my life in deeply personal ways: It was there that I met my wife, and together we began the family that has been life’s greatest blessing. As America approaches the 25th anniversary of 9/11, I remember the nearly 3,000 innocent people murdered that day, honor the first responders and service members who answered the call, and reflect on the extraordinary sacrifices made in defense of our country. For me, 9/11 is both a solemn national anniversary and a reminder of how profoundly that day shaped the course of my own life, and the lives of an entire generation.

READ MORE IN THE LATEST RIPON FORUM: https://riponsociety.org/article/ripon-profile-of-michael-baumgartner/