Doubled D Charters

This is also pretty relevant to all the Caribbean,

🌧️ SO... WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL THAT RAIN YESTERDAY?

Almost everything pointed towards a wet Wednesday. A tropical wave was approaching, the forecast called for a high chance of showers and thunderstorms, the skies turned extremely dark at times, and some weather apps were even telling us it was raining.

Yet for most of Anguilla... almost nothing happened. 😅

So was everybody wrong?

Not exactly.

A tropical wave doesn't bring a solid wall of rain. It creates an environment where showers and thunderstorms are more likely to develop, but those showers form in clusters with plenty of gaps between them.

And Anguilla is a very small target. A heavy shower passing just a few miles north or south can leave us completely dry while nearby areas get soaked.

📱 What about your phone saying it was raining?

Weather apps use radar, satellite data, nearby observations and computer models. If rain is detected close to your location, the app can sometimes show rain even though not a drop is falling where you're standing.

And remember, an 80% chance of rain doesn't mean it will rain for 80% of the day. It means there is a high probability of measurable rain at the forecast location during that period. It is still possible to miss it.

So yesterday the ingredients were there, showers developed around the region, but Anguilla largely missed the action.

Today the wave has moved farther west and, as many of us can see this morning, the sunshine is back. ☀️

That's tropical weather for you. Sometimes everything lines up for rain, and our little island manages to slip through the gaps. 😄

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Until next time remember,

Good morning everyone.
So far we have been spared most of the rain associated with this wave that’s going through is well to the south , but there is a second mass of moisture to the east of us it’s currently over antigua and st Marteen , and this second blob of moisture is what has the potential to bring us a fair bit of rain and thunderstorms late this afternoon into tomorrow morning, or with the wind shifting and coming from the south east may give that rain system a bit of a push north and we don’t get as much, but I would plan on a fair bit of rain this afternoon and tonight, with trailing showers tomorrow morning.
Generally winds will be from SW in the 20knts range later today tonight and tomorrow morning into to tomorrow afternoon .
Have a safe weekend
Dave

Good afternoon all
Just a quick note Dolly has fallen in strength as it hits extreme dry air and some wind sheer , that has been a problem for all the lows coming off Africa this year.
It’s still got lots of cloud cover and rain and because this is supposed to pass 50-100 miles south of us Sunday should have some gusty winds around maybe some thunderstorms Sunday morning into Sunday night and Monday morning as the storm passes by, early Sunday winds should be from the north east, and in the afternoon as it passes should start to calm down and become south east , and then easterly again late Monday.
Hope the super elNinio keeps up the barriers that has kept hurricanes forming for the rest of the season for our area.
Looking at long term the dryer weather pattern is suppose to continue for the forceable future except this Sunday Monday.
Have a safe weekend
Dave

Good morning all
Hello dolly, first TS although on the low side, doesn’t look like it will develop much, going to get caught up in dry air and wind sheer , but will watch incase strange things start to happen .
Depending on where the center really passes the BVI will depend on wind speeds and moisture !
But hopefully get some rain out of this .
Will watch and wait.
Dave

Good afternoon, all
Just a little up date, nothing really going on, seems to be the theme so far this hurricane season, there is a low about to come off Africa , and it has some potentially, but models seem to be pulling it to the north a bit as it approaches, won’t get an idea of exactly what it’s going to do for another 5 days or so , but worth watching . So still same old same old, hot , dusty , no wind , and very little moisture in the forecast o er the next 10days sorry to say.
Have a great weekend
Dave

Good afternoon all
Relatively good news, not going to have much impact from 92L and it looks like not much impact from 94L
They will
Probably bring some moisture through some showers and maybe a thunder storm or two.
There is a third Low behind these 2 will show up way later next week, of the dry air , and the winds aloft stay fairly strong will be difficult for the next one to form also.
Will be windy through the weekend
So have a nice breezy weekend.
Dave

Good morning all
92L has got the computer models all in agreement as to where it is probably going to track as it passes by well to the south of us over the next 3-4days if nothing changes dramatically.
Will be windy this weekend and probably some gusty winds as we get closer to Sunday, winds will more than likely remain well under 30knts, if it stays with in the predictions. Wind sheer and dry air is keeping this low from developing .
The color shot is Predict winds forecast for Sunday morning 7am , you can see center is down near the ABCs.
94L is has some circulation already got some circulation , it is a week away from going by us next Friday, it’s going to have the same difficulties to over come with wind-shear and dry air as it approaches our area.
94L is going to be a much closer pass than 92L and my land on top of us, so is one to watch , to far away to be predictable , but models have it passing close by at the moment.
Waters will be a little rough this weekend so be safe around on the water
Dave

Good morning all, overnight things have gotten a little more organized to be able to call the next system 92L and probably our 1st tropical storm to pass us by.
There are 2 distinct models one brings the storm farther south of us and increasing in strength.
The other model is bringing it much closer to us and not strengthening very much .
Both are to far away to have any idea of exactly what we might have to deal with, considering yesterday it was going to pass far to the North of us.
For the rest of this week winds will be elevated to the very windy category, then wind guru has the winds drop to a normal range for all of next week, I am pretty sure they might change a bit as the 92L approaches, and we will probably have a swell from the south as this system passes by.
Dave

Good morning all
First pic is the winds for the next 10 days or so , second pic is the system down by Trinidad, and the third pic is the system that will be going by us to the north mon. Tuesday ish.
Dry ,breezy ,hazy, with the odd passing shower is going to be consistent for the week, there is going to be a strong wave pass by, just off the coast of South America as it passes by it’s going to pick up the winds for the weekend , starting Friday to become fairly strong winds in the 20-25knts area, and it seems at the moment not much rain , if there is a little it will be moving fast.
Looking way ahead to Monday on wards there may be a bit of a strong low pressure system or may be a tropical depression, doesn’t look like it develops much but it comes really close to us before it swings north , so this far out it’s anyone’s guess, lots of dry air is making it hard for things to get going, and the winds aloft are strong and going the wrong way, so there sheering the tops of the developing storms.
So will have better info Friday or so.

Good morning all
Been awhile , looks like weather patterns are going to change a bit, maybe get some tropical wave action this weekend and midweek next, not sure , with all this Saharan dust in the air.
The windy day we are having today , and will continue tomorrow, but should caulm down over the weekend to about mid week next, then it’s suppose to pick back up again for a bit.
I will start to post periodically now that some tropical waves are popping off the African coast, but because of the super el ninio we are supposed to have, we are not suppose to have a to active hurricane season, but all it takes is one.
Hope everyone has a great day
Dave